India reported its highest single-day spike on May 17 when according to ‘worldometers’, it registered 5,050 Covid-19 cases. Given that the lockdown restrictions were eased on May 4, testing has increased considerably and the country is inching towards its peak, this is not an alarming number by any stretch of the imagination.
Moreover, there hasn’t been any significant corresponding rise in the number of deaths and that is what matters the most. With 195 deaths, the last highest single-day jump was reported on May 5.
It would be interesting to compare how India has fared with the world in terms of their worst spikes. We compare the 15 most severely affected countries.
India’s worst daily case spike of 5,050 cases was recorded on May 17. Only Belgium, Canada, Iran and Peru have seen better worst daily surges. The USA reported 38,958 cases on April 24 – the maximum for any country on any single day. Even China registered 14,108 cases on February 12.
There are two reasons for this. Firstly, for various reasons that are still under investigation, including an early and stringent lockdown, our rate of growth of cases was gradual and not as steep as some of the Western European countries and USA. Thus, India has not seen a sudden exponential surge in cases on any day as most of these other countries. Secondly, like Peru, Brazil and Russia, India is yet to reach its peak. All the other countries have reached their peak, flattened the curve (for new cases) and are on a downward slope. Thus, while India, in all probability, will see a surge in cases and a new ‘worst’, this should be considerably lower than the peaks of most of the other severely affected countries.
Where India has done exceptionally well is in controlling the number of deaths.
Its worst spike of 195 happened on May 5 – only Russia, Turkey, Peru and Iran have had better worst days. Of these, there are credible reports of serious under-reporting from Moscow, Istanbul and Tehran.
Related to this is the Number of Tests per Case. Again, if we see the cumulative ratio (after all the countries had recorded a substantial number of cases), India’s worst was 23.4 tests-per-case on April 23. Only Russia (25.3) fares better on this parameter. The UK had a tests-per-case ratio of just 3.2 – the worst amongst the selected 15 countries - on April 20. Even Germany’s worst cumulative tests-per-case ratio of 14.5 is much lower than India’s. The corresponding ratios for some other countries are – Peru (7.5), USA (5.3), Spain (5.1), Italy (4.6) and Belgium (3.9).
It is interesting to compare the ‘maximum single-day cases and deaths multiple’ of India with some of the other severely affected countries. While the USA’s worst day in terms of the number of cases is almost 8 times higher than the corresponding day for India, the multiple for deaths is as high as 14 times.
Other countries like Brazil (4.28 times worst day deaths, 3.03 times worst day cases), Italy (4.71, 1.3), Spain (4.93, 1.64), UK (6.01, 1.72), China (6.62, 2.79) and France (6.62, 2.79) all follow the same pattern.
What is remarkable is that even for a country like Belgium whose single-day worst (in terms of the number of cases) is less than half of India’s, the single-day worst (in terms of the number of deaths) is more than 2.5 times. Even Canada’s worst single-day cases are 0.55 times India’s but the corresponding multiple in terms of deaths is marginally greater than 1.
This further shows that India has done a fantastic job in controlling the number of Covid-19 deaths, thus far.
Mapping the mortality rates of these 15 worst-affected countries (post cumulative 1000 cases in the country) again throws some startling numbers.
India’s worst cumulative mortality rate of 3.43% was recorded on May 6. Only two countries – Russia and Turkey have lower comparative numbers – again – the same two nations from where multiple sources have suggested under-reporting in the count of the deceased due to COVID-19. India’s highest mortality rate is even lower than the corresponding number for Germany – hailed as a model nation for their containment of the loss of lives due to the virus. The worst mortality rates of some of the other countries – France (19.41%), Belgium (16.42%), UK (15.93%) and Italy (14.13%) gives us an idea of the devastation caused by COVID-19 in these countries and comparatively how India has somehow managed to constantly maintain a very low Mortality Rate.
It is also interesting to note that most of these countries – Italy, France, Spain, Belgium amongst others – who passed their peak some weeks back, are only now observing their worst mortality rate – an indication that while their number of cases and deaths both are on the downward curve, the number of deaths is reducing at a slower pace than the number of cases.
In the coming weeks, we will undoubtedly see a surge in India’s cases and deaths. But in all likelihood, we will never peak at the levels of some other countries. The imposition of the lockdown has not only pushed our peak by a few weeks but also made sure it is considerably lower than most of the other worst-affected countries.
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