What's Next After Israeli Army Orders Evacuation In Rafah Ahead Of Expected Assault?

Signaling a long-promised ground invasion of Rafah, the Israeli army on Monday ordered tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza’s southern city to start evacuating from the area. The development came amid efforts by international mediators, including the US to broker a ceasefire in Gaza.

The militant Hamas group and Qatar, a key mediator, have warned that invading Rafah, along the border with Egypt, could derail the talks. However, Israel has described Rafah as the last significant Hamas stronghold after seven months of war, and its leaders have repeatedly said the invasion is necessary to defeat the militant group.

‘Dangerous escalation’

US President Joe Biden will meet Middle East ally, Jordan’s King Abdullah II, at the White House on Monday with prospects for a Gaza ceasefire appearing slim and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and Israeli officials blaming each other for the impasse. On Sunday, Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the freeing of hostages, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly ruled that out.

Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an army spokesperson, said some 100,000 people were being ordered to move to a nearby Israel-declared humanitarian zone called Muwasi. He said Israel was preparing a “limited scope operation” and would not say whether this was the beginning of a broader invasion of the city. “This is a dangerous escalation that will have consequences. The U.S. administration, alongside the occupation, bears responsibility for this terrorism,” said Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhuri.

Deadly rocket attack

Overnight, Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, told US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin that Israel had no choice but to act in Rafah. On Sunday, Hamas carried out a deadly rocket attack from the Rafah area that killed four Israeli soldiers. Shoshani said Israel published a map of the evacuation area, and that orders were being issued through air-dropped leaflets, text messages and radio broadcasts.

He said Israel has expanded humanitarian aid into Muwasi, including field hospitals, tents, food and water. Israel’s army said on the social platform X that it would act with “extreme force” against militants, and urged the population to evacuate immediately for their safety. Israel’s plan to invade Rafah has raised global alarm because of the potential for harm to more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering there. About 1.4 million Palestinians, more than half of Gaza’s population, are jammed into the city and its surroundings.

Most of them fled their homes elsewhere in the territory to escape Israel’s onslaught and now face another wrenching move or the danger of staying under a new assault. They live in densely packed tent camps, overflowing U.N. shelters or crowded apartments, and are dependent on international aid for food, with sanitation systems and medical facilities infrastructure crippled.

Devastating consequences

The UN agency that has helped millions of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank for decades, known as UNRWA, warned Monday of devastating consequences of a Rafah offensive, including more civilian suffering and deaths. The agency said it would not leave but stay in Rafah as long as possible to continue providing lifesaving assistance. Egypt’s Rafah crossing, a main transfer point for aid going into Gaza, lies in the evacuation zone.

The crossing remained open on Monday after the Israeli order. But even as the U.S., Egypt and Qatar have pushed for a cease-fire agreement, Israeli PM repeated last week that the military would move on the city “with or without a deal” to achieve its goal of destroying the Hamas militant group. On Monday, Netanyahu accused Hamas of “torpedoing” the hostage deal and not budging from its “extreme demands” while vowing to stop the militants from retaking control of Gaza.

In a fiery speech Sunday evening marking the country’s annual Holocaust memorial day, he rejected international pressure to halt the war, saying that “if Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone.” Israel is reportedly trying to pressure Hamas into making concessions on the ceasefire, but the group insists it won’t change its demands. Hamas wants a full end to the war, withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the eventual reconstruction of the strip in exchange for the Israeli hostages held by the militants.

(With agency inputs)