A month ago the prospect of Canada’s charismatic Liberal prime minister, Justin Trudeau, losing power to a little-known ex-air force navigator would have been faintly ridiculous.
When Trudeau called the September 20 election, he had a hefty lead in opinion polls. But with less than a week to go, public opinion has soured on him to such an extent that Conservative leader Erin O’Toole could end Trudeau’s six years in office.
Trudeau, 49, sought the vote – two years ahead of schedule – to try to capitalize on his management of the pandemic to win a majority in parliament. Since 2019, he has only had a minority, forcing him to depend on other parties to govern.
But he appears to have underestimated the repercussions of calling the election during a worsening fourth wave of COVID-19, and O’Toole never speaks without accusing the prime minister of putting Canadians in harm’s way for personal ambition.
People also seem to be tiring of Trudeau, a factor that helped make the 48-year-old O’Toole a real competitor. Liberals knocking on doors say some voters are unhappy with the early election call and the massive amount of money the government spent combating the pandemic.
The timing
Since 2019, Trudeau has only commanded a minority in parliament, leaving him dependent on other parties to govern. Trudeau argues the pandemic has changed Canada like the World War II did and Canadians should now choose who they want to make important decisions for decades to come.
A misfire?
Trudeau has struggled to explain why an early election during a worsening fourth wave of COVID-19 was a good idea. Conservative leader Erin O’Toole consistently accuses the Liberal leader of putting Canadians in harm’s way for personal ambition. People also seem to be tiring of Trudeau, who carries the baggage of having governed for six years.
After Trudeau called the election, his hefty opinion poll lead vanished. Recent surveys point to a tight race in which he might retain power with another minority.
Steady Conservative gains during the first three weeks stopped as Trudeau attacked O’Toole for his opposition to vaccine mandates and his promise – now reversed to legalise some assault weapons the Liberals had banned.
O’Toole stepped up his attacks on Trudeau on Monday, portraying him as a scandal-hit party-goer obsessed with keeping power at all costs.
The issues
To tackle the pandemic, the Liberals ran up a record national debt of C$1 trillion ($785.7 billion) and pushed budget deficits to highs not seen since World War Two. In the campaign, they promised another C$78 billion in new spending over five years.
O’Toole says he will balance the books within a decade without making cuts.
Analysts say financial markets do not appear overly worried about the fiscal implications of either promise although the stocks of bank and insurance firm could suffer after Trudeau promised a new windfall tax on their profits.
Vaccine mandates
The Liberal government has introduced Covid-19 vaccine mandates. Four provinces including Quebec and Ontario, Canadas largest, are bringing in vaccine passports that require citizens to be vaccinated to enter places like restaurants and gyms. During the campaign, Trudeau has been abused and heckled by people opposing the move and says his Conservative rival is taking his cues from the crowds. O’Toole opposes vaccine mandates, including for his own candidates, and says he prefers frequent testing.
Childcare
Employment of women has plummeted thanks to Covid-19. The Liberals are promising to spend up to C$30 billion over five years to set up a long-promised C$10 a day national childcare program. The Conservatives say they will cancel those deals and instead offer tax credits of up to C$6,000 a year to help pay for daycare.
Housing affordability
Housing prices have soared about 70% since Trudeau took office. He is promising https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trudeau-pledges-foreign-home-buyer-ban-rent-to-own-scheme-bid-canada-voters-2021-08-24 to build, preserve, or repair 1.4 million homes over the next four years, among other measures. The Conservatives would boost supply https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-conservatives-promise-job-boom-challenge-trudeau-2021-08-16 by building a million homes over three years and loosening some mortgage requirements.
The 49-year-old Trudeau, the son of the late Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, became the second youngest prime minister in Canadian history when he was first elected with a majority of seats in Parliament in 2015. He reasserted liberalism in 2015 after almost 10 years of Conservative Party government in Canada, but scandals combined with high expectations damaged his brand.
His father served as prime minister from 1968 to 1984 with a short interruption and remains one of the few Canadian politicians known in other countries.
(With Reuters inputs)
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