Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has withdrawn from the UPA and has announced that her minister will resign from the UPA on Friday. This came after her 72-hour deadline for the government to roll back the diesel price hike, LPG cap and FDI in retail ended.
The possible scenario that could now emerge in the coming days are:
Scenario 1
The UPA is in minority, but it manages to retain power with SP, BSP and RJD's outside support.
Scenario 2
The SP, too, pulls out. But the UPA retains power with Mayawati and Lalu's support.
Scenario 3
The government blinks, though that's highly unlikely. As a result Mamata takes back her decision to withdraw, but reforms are on the back burner. Manmohan Singh continues as Prime Minister.
Scenario 4
The SP, BSP and even DMK pull out. As a result, the government loses the numbers and BJP brings no confidence motion leading to elections at the end of the year.
Scenario 5
The government continues as a minority government and delivers a populist budget. Eventually the government goes in for polls in mid-2013.
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