Does anyone even dare to predict what will happen in the UP Assembly elections? Experts say no party in the country’s politically most important state is capable of winning its own, so the key is alliances.
The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) has 143 seats in the House, and was able to prove its majority when it took a vote of confidence in January. But the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) have abandoned the government and say they will not ally with the SP. Caste combinations matter a lot in UP, and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) claims to be the leader of Dalits and lower castes in the state.
The BJP, which is raising its Hindutva ideology once again, is perceived to be the party of upper castes. The Congress will try the middle ground and woo voters by speaking about its achievements at the Centre.
The rising crime graph in the state will be big issue in the elections. Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav insists that all is well in the state but the serial murder of children in Noida’s Nithari village has damaged his claims.
Yadav, BSP leader Mayawati, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and BJP leaders Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh will be the key politicians to watch out for in the state.
An interesting aspect of the election will be the fight for Muslim votes. The SP, Congress and the BSP will tell Muslims to vote for them by speaking about their schemes for minorities. Will the BJP reply to this by crying ‘minority appeasement’ or will it too have something for the Muslims?
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