It's Sunday morning and you are wondering if you want to turn on the TV when counting for Gujarat begins. You have seen that all the exit polls agree with one another but you are still not convinced that the outcome is a foregone conclusion. You are not alone.
There are many, including those like me who made these projections, who are with you.
This has been one of the hardest elections to predict. All the polls are dealing with a good deal of over-reporting for the ruling party and an unusually large pro portion of silence on the part of the voters. All the polls have "corrected" for this factor in their own way. Yes, no one can be sure. This is one of the few elections where all three outcomes are possible on Verdict Day.
If exit polls have over-corrected for this factor, Modi could come back to power with a much bigger margin that projected by any exit poll. If they have undercorrected, the BJP could fall below the lowest figure projected and end up in Opposition. If pollsters are lucky, and only if they are so, their forecasts may be just about right. More likely, they have made not one but two errors that happen to cancel each other, and make the pollsters look smarter than they are.
It's 8:30 am, you have decided to tune in and you are in the twenty-twenty mode. The trickle of trends is turning into a downpour and you are breathlessly tracking these to keep your sight on the big picture.
The equation is very simple: unless you see the BJP losing in a big way in Saurashtra and Central Gujarat, you can conclude that Modi is back to power. Small gains for the Congress in South is not a big story.
But any gains for the Congress in North Gujarat could be crucial.
By 10 am, the big picture is clear. If it is a big victory for Modi or a major upset for him, you don't need to look at the exact numbers any more. If that is not the case, you are better off glued to the screen. Remember, the EVM counting is very treacherous.
What looks like a clear lead of 10 to 15 seats could still turn into a deficit. If this is a close election, you are asking more fine-tuned questions: did the much-hyped rebel factor damage the BJP? Did the Congress gift half a dozen seats to the BJP by leaving these for weak allies? Did Mayawati's first serious foray in Gujarat cost the Congress crucial seats? Did Uma Bharati take sweet revenge on Modi?
Lunch time is already post-mortem time. You have cursed the exit polls (or forgotten them if they happen to be right: polls are remembered only when they go wrong) and are bracing yourself for all kinds of theories.
If Modi wins, some will tout it as the victory of economic reforms and politics of development. Never mind that this plank was conveniently junked by Modi himself in the last lap. If Modi loses, this may be presented as the defeat of communalism. No one would like to remember that the Congress dared not raise this issue in this campaign.
It is time to remind yourself that nothing is more fallacious that reading the consequences of an election back into the motives of the voters. By dinner time, you are watching brickbats and hyperboles. If Congress loses by a small margin, they are beginning to blame Delhi politicians for the Maut ka Saudagar rhetoric. Knives may be out for Modi if he loses or even if the BJP falls below 100.
You are sick and tired of the political hyperbole. You are listening to speculation about the mid-term polls and could not care less. It is time finally to switch off the TV and ask yourself a question that they never asked through the day.
What would this result mean for the victims of the 2002 massacre? Wasn't this the question that gave this election the significance that it acquired? You begin to see the real meaning of the dark side of democracy: no matter who wins the elections, there is little hope of justice for them.
That is perhaps why they did not talk about this issue through the day.
(Yadav is Senior Fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, and led the team behind The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar Gu jarat pre-poll and exit poll.)
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