‘Tests, tests, tests…’ in spite of India increasing its testing numbers from a shade over 4,000 per day on April 1 to 75,000 a day on May 2 (almost 19 times) within a month, ‘noise’ from certain sections of the Western media and some habitual critics within the country, does not seem to die down.
India joined a select group of nations on May 3 as it crossed a million Covid-19 tests. According to Worldometers, only 10 countries — USA, Russia, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, UAE, Turkey, India and France have conducted million-plus tests.
India had reported 39,980 positive cases when it crossed the landmark of conducting one million tests. The USA had more than four times the number of confirmed cases, Spain more than five times, Turkey almost three times and Italy close to four times the number of cases than India when they crossed their respective one million Tests.
As many as 37 countries have so far recorded 10,000-plus cases. Of these India’s tests/case ratio of 25.95 places it at number five only after UAE, South Korea, Russia and Poland (Note: there is no testing data for China)
Just for perspective, Germany has a Tests/Case ratio of 15.37, Japan (12.32), Italy (10.22), Turkey (9.01), Spain (7.82), Singapore (7.66), France (6.52), UK (6.47), USA (6.06), Sweden (5.35), Iran (5.09), Brazil (3.33) and Ecuador (2.66).
In effect, this implies that every 10th person tested in Italy is Covid-19 positive, every 6th person in UK and USA, every 5th person in Iran and every 3rd person in Brazil – these are shocking numbers, to say the least!
If we consider som
e other prominent nations (no filter on cases but with a minimum of two lakh tests), Vietnam is a complete outlier and has done a tremendous job of containment. It has conducted some 2,61,004 tests and reported only 271 cases, that is, 963 tests per case. Unlike South Korea and Taiwan which went for mass testing, Vietnam due to the constraint of resources opted for selective and proactive prevention. Some other countries who have done a good job include New Zealand (132.5 tests/case), Australia (87.1 tests/case) and Czech Republic (33.3 tests/case).
The substantial difference across countries is significant. Countries with a high number of tests per case seem to have taken certain steps which have helped against the spread of the virus.
It is important to point out that the ‘number of tests’ may refer to either the ‘number of total samples tested’ or the ‘number of people tested’ as the data for various countries is segregated differently.
While sceptics may still raise questions about the number of cases being reported, it is almost impossible in a big, diverse and vibrant democracy like India to hide the number of deceased. At least not significantly.
India’s tests per death ratio of approximately 794 places it at number 9 amongst the 37 countries with 10,000-plus cases. It is better than the likes of Japan (376.29 tests per death), Germany (371), Indonesia (134), USA (105), Iran (80), Spain (76.5), Brazil (48) and UK (42) among others.
It is also interesting to analyse the countries that have a better tests per death ratio than India — namely, UAE, Qatar, Singapore, Russia, South Korea, Belarus, Saudi Arabia and Israel — all rich nations with a per capita income multiple times higher than India and mostly dictatorships or monarchies or just democracies on paper. Barring Russia and South Korea, the population of most of these countries is less than some of the metros of India.
Coupled with India’s tests per death ratio is India’s mortality rate of 3.27 per cent — this is less than half of the world’s Covid-19 mortality rate of 6.96 per cent. Among the 37 countries with 10,000-plus cases, India stands at 14. Again, most of the countries with a better mortality rate than India are either rich or have a small population or are dictatorships.
But India has done remarkably well when compared when the western European superpowers and the US among others. Just for perspective, Germany has a mortality rate of 4.14 per cent and the same for China (5.59 %), US (5.77%), Iran (6.37%), Indonesia (7.55%), Spain (10.22%), Sweden (12%), Italy (13.7%), France (14.75%), UK (15.24%) and Belgium (15.72%) is higher.
If we rank the 37 selected countries (with 10,000-plus cases) according to the three parameters – 1) Tests/Case, 2) Tests/Death, 3) Mortality – and take an average, then India is placed within the top 10 at Number 9.
Yes, India’s number of tests per million is low but that is more an indicator of our colossal population than our low numbers in testing. India cannot test everyone. It does not have the resources to do so. Yet, it has ramped up its testing numbers in the last few weeks and done a remarkable job in containing the virus from spreading and more crucially in preventing deaths.
Apart from other factors, there seems to be a high correlation between an effective and stringent lockdown and the low numbers of cases and deaths.
There also seems to a high correlation between those making fun of Thali, Taali, Diya campaigns, the showering of flowers by the armed forces on our health warriors and those constantly trying to pull the country down under the garb of ‘test, test, test’!
Constructive criticism of the incumbent government is one thing, constant India-bashing another. It is almost as if a section is disappointed that India hasn’t suffered more due to the virus!
But that is an analysis for another piece. For now, India has done well and its testing strategy has worked.
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