The southwest monsoon is on track and could make its onset over the Kerala coast in another five days, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD), exuding confidence that the four-month season starting June will record above-normal rain for India this year.
The IMD had earlier predicted May 31 (+/-4) as the onset date for monsoon over Kerala. “So far its progress over the Bay of Bengal is near-normal, and any delay is unlikely,” said IMD chief Dr M Mohapatra on Monday.
The seasonal rain has been forecast to be higher over most of the country, but some parts of Northeastern states and eastern parts of Central India could end up with below-normal rain – less than 94% of the long period average (LPA). This includes parts of Odisha, southern districts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal and north-eastern states.
“The national forecast probability for deficient and below-normal rain is 10%, so we can effectively rule that out. The monsoon is expected to be on the higher side this year – 106% of the LPA with a model error of +/-4 days, but there are likely to be some states in eastern India where it could be below-normal,” said Mohapatra.
Geographically, Northwest India, which has borne the brunt of severe heatwaves this May worsened by absence of rain, is expected to witness normal rain (94-108% of LPA) as per the second-long range forecast of the monsoon released by IMD on Monday. It is the southern peninsular as well as Central India which also comprises the core monsoon zone that could witness above-normal rains (>106% of LPA). This region also comprises most of the rain-fed farmlands.
HEATWAVES TO ABATE FROM MAY 30
In a piece of good news, Northwest India could get some relief from the blistering heatwaves, which are expected to abate after May 30. The IMD has withdrawn any red warnings after May 30 on account of a western disturbance which could lead to some moisture incursion and trigger some thunderstorm activity over the plains and bring down the temperatures.
“It has been an exceptionally hot summer for Northwest India – not just in terms of the frequency of heatwaves, but also the higher temperatures during the night for most part of the month. People should remain cautious in June too as the temperatures are likely to remain high during day and night, along with surge in humidity levels,” said Mohapatra.
Most of India was scorched by unbearable heatwaves in May, which hit the country in two spells. Delhi-NCR, South Haryana and southwest Uttar Pradesh and Punjab witnessed as many as five-seven heatwave days post May 17, with mercury rising to 44-48°C. It touched 48.8°C in Najafgarh in Delhi. However, Rajasthan and Gujarat were worst hit with nine-12 heatwave days with temperature surging to as high as 50°C and hovering there for days. The temperature was recorded to be 49.3°C in Phalodi on Monday.
The heatwaves also swept Assam with record temperatures around May 25-26.
As many as five western disturbances impacted the Western Himalayas in May, but only two of them were active. These are extra tropical storms, which bring rain over Northwest India. So the weather over northern plains remained mostly dry after May 15.
While there may be some temporary relief later this week, June overall is expected to be hotter for the region with an increase of at least four-six heatwave days across the states. The overall temperatures will remain above normal and the rain could be below-normal in northern and eastern parts of Northwest India where the monsoon makes its onset post June 15.
The overall temperatures will remain above normal in June for most of India.
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