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On May 23, an incident involving Ryanair Flight 4978 shook the aviation and political fraternity across the globe. A Ryanair flight headed from Athens, Greece to Vilnius, Lithuania flying over the Belarusian airspace took a sudden detour as Mig-29 fighter jets escorted the flights to land at Minsk Airport, Belarus. While initial reports suggested that a bomb threat forced Belarusian authorities to take such extreme step, it was later revealed that the flight was carrying Roman Protasevich, a dissident Belarusian journalist, who was promptly arrested when the plane landed.
All this bomb threat episode was created to arrest a man travelling on a flight which originated from one country, was flying to another country and was barely passing the Belarusian airspace. This shook the international community to the core, who described the incident as a state-sponsored hijacking. Later European Union among many other countries decided to ban flights from Belarus and also avoid its airspace.
Now we won’t go into the political side of the incident. We will be talking about the repercussions on the aviation industry and hos a mess has been created over the region. Here’s our FAQ:
Q.What’s the incident exactly?
On 23 May 2021, a Ryanair Flight 4978 operating a Boeing 737-800 from Athens–Vilnius with 132 onboard was diverted to Minsk National Airport. The ground authorities reported a bomb on board and MiG-29 fighter jets were scrambled to bring down the plane safely. Air traffic control on Belarus mentioned an email from terrorists was sent to the Minsk airport.
Later, both Ryanair and Belarusian law enforcement said that no bombs were found on board. Instead, Roman Protasevich, a Belarusian journalist and his girlfriend were arrested and the flight was allowed to carry forward the journey. The flight safely landed in Lithuania the same day.
Q.Is it a big deal for aviation industry or an internal political matter?
While Belarus is scuffing the incident as an internal matter, suggesting that it has been blown out of proportion, diverting an international flight and forcing it to land for any reason is a serious act. International air traffic holds utmost importance under International Laws and countries refrain from fiddling around with flight roasters, flight path and other things of international flights.
While the plane landed successfully at the destination country without any harm to crew or passengers, barring the two people who were detained in Minsk, it could have turned out badly. Imagine one wrong move by the Ryanair pilot with two MiG-29 fighter jets shadowing the plane. There’s clearly so many things that could have gone wrong at 39,000 feet.
Q.How are countries and airlines reacting?
Global airlines are avoiding the airspace of Belarus and the incident has caused a new headache to airlines already hurting from the travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The event became the main topic of a European Union summit on Monday, prompting leaders to urge EU-based airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace and ban the country’s carriers from the 27-nation bloc.
Britain also issued instructions for British aircraft to avoid Belarusian airspace while Ukraine decided to halt direct flights between the two countries and over Belarus. Major air carriers including Air France, KLM, Lufthansa, Finnair, SAS, Singapore Airlines and Japan’s ANA suspended flights over the country and redirected those already en route.
Q.How many flights will be impacted?
Belarus is on a route linking Europe and Asia, but airlines have several other routes which are often used when weather forces flight changes. Airlines have already had to tweak their routes in the region, skipping part of Ukraine due to restrictions imposed following a conflict between pro-Russia separatists and Kiev forces in the east. In July 2014, a Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was hit by a Russian-made BUK missile over rebel-held territory, killing all 298 people on board.
According to Eurocontrol, the agency that coordinates air traffic control in the EU, it is being estimated that nearly 2,500 commercial airplanes fly over Belarus every week. However, this figure is lower than usual due to international air restrictions following the the pandemic.
Q.What’s the impact on airlines?
Diverting flights “will increase flight times, and require more fuel and more maintenance hours", a long-haul pilot told AFP on condition of anonymity. But it is still possible to find alternative routes despite the situation in the region, the pilot said, adding that the act of “piracy" by the Belarusian government had angered pilots.
An ANA spokesman said avoiding Belarus will have “limited consequences because there are many route choices". The Russian government voiced regret at Europe’s decision to cut air links with ex-Soviet Belarus. “It is very expensive for any company to fly around the territory of a rather large country located in the centre of Europe," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
It will cause more trouble for shorter flights. A Kiev to Vilnius flight by Hungarian budget airline Wizz Air took one hour and 32 minutes on Tuesday compared to 57 minutes on Thursday, as it had to go around Belarus through Poland, according to FlightRadar24.
Probably no more than an hour to 90 minutes in the worst-case scenario. Belarus isn’t a large country, and airlines certainly weren’t spending much time in their airspace to begin with. A north-south trip takes more time. So the Ryanair flight that was diverted, Athens to Vilnius—that takes a little more time than airlines that are traveling, say, from Germany or Poland or the Netherlands to places in Southeast Asia.
Q.Have we seen more cases like this in the past?
Avoiding a country’s airspace due to politics or conflicts is nothing new. Nations can ban flights over their territories or restrict their airlines from flying over sensitive areas. Qatar Airways had to fly around the Arabian peninsula to reach Europe and the United States for four years until January due to a boycott imposed by Saudi Arabia.
A conflict between the militant group Hamas in Gaza and Israel prompted Israel to reroute planes towards the south of the country. Commercial flights also avoid airspaces in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq due to conflicts. Pakistan also imposed a ban on flights from India for a time being during the Pulwama attack which forced many Indian airlines to adopt a much longer route to the Western countries.
Q.What’s the larger impact here?
Belarus is just a small country and avoiding its airspace would only cost an hour worth of diversion on tops. But imagine such a scenario arriving on a foreign land much larger in size, like Russia, or for that matter, China. Bypassing their airspace to reach destinations would cost additional hours in the air which will result in huge loss in fuel. Ultimately, passengers will have to pay for airline losses. Not to mention the impact on the time.
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