US Polling Expert Picks Between Biden, Trump Ahead Of Presidential Poll: Who's In The Lead?

Ahead of the upcoming US presidential election in November, renowned American election analyst Nate Silver has picked a clear front-runner who will likely triumph in the race to the White House.

Silver’s analysis released on Wednesday puts former President Donald Trump ahead of incumbent Biden. This prediction, which gives a 65.7% winning chance to Trump, also indicates that Biden holds a slight edge in the national popular vote, with 47.2% against Trump’s 47.1%, according to the New York Post.

US Prez election ‘isn’t a toss-up’

However, Silver’s model shows a different outcome in the Electoral College, where Trump is expected to secure 287 electoral votes, just above the 270 needed to claim the White House. Despite these projections, Silver acknowledged in a blog post titled “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up” that his personal preference leans towards Biden, even though he believes Trump has the statistical advantage.

Silver’s prediction diverges from that of FiveThirtyEight, the organization he founded and left last year, which currently gives Biden a 51% chance of winning the election. He gained national recognition during the 2012 Presidential campaign for accurately predicting Barack Obama’s re-election.

Silver underlined similarities to the 2012 election dynamics, where national polls in the US were close, but swing state polls favoured one candidate decisively. He stressed that Biden faces significant challenges, particularly in battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, where he trails Trump.

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Losing these states would necessitate Biden winning all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to secure victory, a feat that occurs in only 32% of Silver’s simulations. Recent polling by Quinnipiac University shows Trump gaining momentum, leading Biden by four percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, with Trump at 49% and Biden at 45%.

In a broader six-way contest, Trump’s lead widens to six points. The poll also revealed public sentiment on legal issues involving both candidates, with a majority opposing incarceration for Trump despite a guilty verdict, and a divided opinion on Hunter Biden’s legal matters.

On Friday (IST), Trump and Biden are scheduled to face off in the first debate of the general election season in Atlanta. Though the debate is expected to draw a significant audience, few voters indicated openness to changing their preference based on the debate’s outcome.