More than 96 million Americans have voted nationwide with one day left until Election Day, according to a survey of election officials by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.
These votes represent more than 45% of registered voters nationwide. Eighteen states and Washington, DC, have seen more than half of their registered voters cast ballots already.
Nationwide, the more than 96 million ballots already cast represents 70% of the more than 136.5 million ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.
As pre-Election Day voting surges nationwide amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, many states are reporting record turnout compared to the last cycle. It’s unclear if the outpouring foreshadows a massive turnout wave or is a redistribution of voters who otherwise would’ve voted on Election Day.
Voting rates have varied over the years. The highest turnout in a presidential election since 1972, the first presidential election 18-year-olds could vote, came in 2008, when slightly more than 57% of the voting age population voted.
The second highest was in 2004, when turnout was almost 56%, followed by 1972 at about 55%. Almost 55% of the voting age population cast ballots for the presidential election in 2016. The 1996 presidential election had the lowest turnout, reaching just 48% that cycle.
So far, almost 38% of the voting age population has voted. To reach 2008 levels, the nation would need to see an additional 49 million votes — or 145.7 million votes total — cast this year.
Texas and Hawaii have already surpassed their total turnout from the 2016 general election. In eight more states, the pre-election vote represents at least 90% of their 2016 total vote — Montana, Washington, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Florida, New Mexico and Tennessee.
The candidates are blanketing the most competitive states on the last full day of campaigning, hoping to pick up votes in states where millions have already cast their ballots ahead of Election Day.
President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden, Vice President Mike Pence, and Sen. Kamala Harris will all appear in Pennsylvania at some point today.
Trump will also stop in North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin on Monday. Biden will stump in Ohio as well.
More than 14 million ballots have already been cast in these five states, which could be crucial in determining the next president.
With just one more day until November 3, here’s a deeper look at who’s already voted in these key states, with data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations.
Pennsylvania
It’s no coincidence that all the candidates are stopping in Pennsylvania today. There are a lot of voters who still have not cast a ballot in the state that was the lynchpin to Trump’s 2016 victory.
Democrats have dominated the pre-election vote in the Keystone State. They currently make up 66% of those ballots. The state expanded mail voting options to all voters for the first time. Polling shows Republicans nationwide strongly prefer to vote in person on Election Day, which the Trump campaign thinks will be enough to recapture the state’s 20 electoral votes.
A significant majority of ballots cast so far in Pennsylvania — 82% — come from White voters. Black voters make up the second-largest share of those early ballots at 11%, followed by Hispanic voters at 4% and Asian voters at 3%.
So far, 13% of Pennsylvania’s early voters are under 30, and 38% are 65 or older. More younger voters have been casting ballots in Pennsylvania as the campaign comes to a close. Last week, 11% of the commonwealth’s voters were under 30, and 42% were 65 or older.
Pennsylvania has the largest share of ballots cast from women out of all the key states for which Catalist has data on gender. Women in Pennsylvania account for nearly 57% of ballots already cast, and men account for about 43%.
North Carolina
Trump will make an appearance in Fayetteville, North Carolina, after a rally planned for last week was rescheduled due to high winds.
Democrats hold a smaller lead over Republicans in pre-election ballots cast than they did on the day before the 2016 election. Back then, they had an eight-point lead. Currently, it’s six points, with Democrats at 37% and Republicans at 31%.
Trump ultimately won the state by a little less than four points in 2016.
Younger voters make up a larger share of North Carolina’s early voters this year than at this point in 2016. Fifteen percent of the state’s early voters so far are under 30, almost double the 8% at this time four years ago. That number continues to grow. One week ago, voters under 30 made up 12% of North Carolina’s early voters.
Black voters comprise about 21% of pre-Election Day ballots, down almost two percentage points from this time in 2016. Hispanic voters and Asian voters have seen very slight upticks in their shares of the early vote compared to four years ago.
Almost 56% of ballots already cast come from women in the Tar Heel State, and men comprise about 44%. This is roughly on par with the gender breakdown at this point in 2016.
Michigan
Republicans want to hang onto Michigan’s 16 electoral votes, while Democrats are working to bring the state back into the fold. The pre-election vote in the Wolverine State is younger and a little more diverse compared to the day before the 2016 election.
Voters under 30 have more than tripled their share of the pre-election vote compared to this time in 2016. Currently, they make up 10% of those ballots.
Black voters have expanded their share of pre-Election Day ballots cast from about 9% at this time in 2016 to 12% currently.
Hispanic voters and Asian voters have also seen one-percentage-point upticks in each of their shares of those early votes.
At 83% of early voters so far, White voters make up a smaller share of the early voting electorate compared to the 88% they were at this point in 2016.
Michigan has the third-largest share of ballots cast from women out of all the key states with gender data available from Catalist. Slightly more than 56% of ballots cast so far in the Wolverine State are from women and almost 44% are from men. At this point four years ago, women comprised almost 58% of pre-Election Day ballots and men comprised about 42%.
Wisconsin
Trump holds a rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Monday night as he works to keep the Badger State in the Republican column. He won Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in 2016.
Wisconsin has seen a large decrease in the share of early votes from people 65 or older, but the state hasn’t seen as much of an increase from voters under 30. Seniors went from 46% of the early vote in 2016 to 33% now. Voters under 30 made up only 4% of pre-Election Day voters four years ago but now make up 6%. More voters’ ages are unknown this cycle than four years ago.
By race, Wisconsin’s early voters are similar to that of four years ago, with White voters representing the vast majority — about 88% — of those who’ve cast their ballots so far. Black voters represent about 5% of those early voters, Hispanic voters 3% and Asian voters 2% — all on par with this time in 2016.
Ohio
Biden will make a stop in Cleveland Monday as his campaign makes a last-minute push in a traditional swing state that former President Barack Obama won twice but Trump won by eight points in 2016.
The racial breakdown of Ohio’s early voters is almost identical to this time in 2016. Eighty-six percent of ballots already cast have come from White voters. Black voters comprise about 11% of those early ballots, with Hispanic voters accounting for about 2% and Asian voters about 1%.
Younger Ohioans have increased their share of the early vote from 7% at this point in 2016 to about 12% now. These voters below the age of 30 have also continued to turn out during the last week of the campaign — one week ago, they made up 9% of early voters.
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