Sheila's Nomination Forces BJP Back to the Drawing Board in UP

Bharatiya Janata Party may have to go back to the drawing board to redraft its UP strategy in the wake of Congress playing the Brahmin card by nominating veteran party leader Sheila Dikshit as its chief ministerial candidate

The outcome of the next year's Assembly polls in the key battleground state that sends maximum number of MPs to the Lok Sabha- an overwhelming 90 per cent of which are currently from the ruling party- has larger political ramifications at the national level.

So far, the political appointments and nominations made by the BJP in UP allude at attempts to forge a larger social coalition of upper-caste, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits. The guiding principle behind these moves is: it is much easier to wean away communities which are at the periphery of caste-centric political parties than the ones which are at the core of the social constellation.

For instance, in the given circumstances, there is a much higher probability of a miscellaneous backward communities voting for the BJP than say Yadavs which form the nucleus of Samajwadi Party's vote-bank. Similarly, the entire BSP politics revolves around Jatavs, and any political investment on sub-castes like Pasis and Sonkars could prove to be a better bargain than competing with Mayawati for Jatav votes.

But this entire strategy is premised on the assumption that BJP would remain the first choice for the upper-caste especially the Brahmins- in the upcoming polls giving BJP enough leeway to experiment with various permutations and combinations with other caste groups to arrive at the winning combination.

Evidently, there is a clear thought behind extending ministerial lifeline to Kalraj Mishra and the subsequent appointment of Mirzapur MP Mahendra Pandey to the union council. The nomination of Shiv Kumar Shukla- another Brahmin face from eastern UP- to the Upper House ensues from this Brahmin outreach. But will this be enough to keep the Brahmins interested in the BJP?

Quite unlike adjoining Bihar, Brahmins in UP are numerically significant in pockets to influence electoral outcomes. With more than 10 per cent of the total electorate, they constitute the largest homogeneous social group after Muslims and Jatavs. Moreover, they are influential opinion-makers good at knitting narratives, and quite vocal in their dissemination. In the last 10 years, they have shown uninhibited and unapologetic predilection in seeking their share in the pie with all political parties- from BSP to SP. Having conceded the real political power in the altered socio-political landscape post the Mandal-Kamandal era, Brahmins in UP have been quite secular in siding and topping up the winning pyramid of front-runners.

By making Shiela Dikshit the CM candidate, the Congress is trying to disrupt this narrative. This disruption is aimed more at the BJP than anyone else. By offering more than the others- the CM candidate- the Congress is not just attempting to cut deeper into the bedrock of what BJP was aiming be its social base. In appointing Dikshit, it is challenging its rival to match up and underscore its upper caste credentials, consequently leaving lesser space for the latter in its efforts at mopping up other caste votes- especially non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav dalits.

Also at play here is the the traditional Brahmin-Rajput faultline in UP. It would be interesting to see how the Congress line up for UP affects Gorakhpur MP Mahant Adityanath candidature. Home Minister Rajnath Singh, who has shown marked reluctance in returning to the state politics however would be much relieved now.

The recent set of events thus has also narrowed down BJP's search for CM candidate. Varun Gandhi remains an option, but then the current party leadership has an uncomfortable equation with the Sultanpur MP.

In the sideline of the just-concluded RSS meeting in Kanpur, the issue came up for discussion amongst prant-pracharaks currently working in UP. There was even a suggestion that a woman should be projected as the CM candidate to take on Mayawati and Sheila Dikshit.

However, it would be difficult to resurrect Smriti Irani so early after a series of demotions in the pecking order in the Union Cabinet.

It's a tricky situation that BJP finds itself in. And as the party goes back to the drawing board, there seems to be a realisation that Congress is fighting this election not to form the next government in UP. It is in fact working to scuttle BJP's shot at power; and to survive and fight another day, in 2019.