Two National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners - former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan - have not been seeing eye to eye even though they claim to be working towards the common goal of ensuring the win of their alliance in the state Assembly elections. Both Manjhi and Paswan claim to be the tallest Dalit/Mahadalit leader but their war of words and direct attacks on each other is making life tough for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
With the Bihar Assembly elections proving to be a very closely fought and tough one, the NDA needs every vote possible in order to defeat the Janata Dal United-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress Mahagathbandhan. In a contest which is likely to go down to the wire, the BJP needs every ally to put in its best but the development of the last few weeks reveal that not all of them are fighting for the same goal.
A few weeks back, the BJP camp was bolstered with Manjhi's entry into the NDA but the development riled Paswan, who had till then been the undisputed Dalit/Mahadalit leader in the NDA camp.
Manjhi's entry changed the equations and soon HAM and LJP leaders were involved in a war to prove themselves as the true representative of the Dalit/Mahadalit community. While the verbal battle continued, NDA's seat sharing too fell victim to the same as both Paswan and Manjhi wanted a much larger share than the other to bolster their claims.
As seat sharing negotiations went on Paswan and Manjhi pressured the BJP leadership to grant them a bigger pie which was not really forthcoming. After several rounds of hectic parleys, the BJP kept 160 seats for itself and gave its three allies 83 constituencies. Paswan's party got 40 seats, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha 23 and Manjhi 20.
All the three allies were present during the seat sharing declaration and even joined their hands and raised it in a show of unity when the final tally was announced on Monday.
But just a few hours later on Tuesday morning, the LJP made it clear that it was not happy with the number of seats given to Manjhi. Paswan's son Chirag, who is the party MP from Jamui, claimed that the formula suggested during the negotiations was not the same that was used to calculate seats allotted to Manjhi.
Although he added that Manjhi was just like his family member and there was no rethink on the alliance with BJP but it was preceded by a not so subtle warning to the bigger alliance partner that LJP was "shocked" with the final seat sharing deal.
Ever since HAM joined NDA, LJP leadership has tried to belittle it by first questioning Manjhi's credentials, then targeting some of its leaders and finally questioning the seats allotted to it.
Manjhi, too, has left no stones unturned in returning the favour. Highlighting his nine-month tenure as Bihar CM, he has been claiming that he has done the most for the upliftment of Dalit/Mahadalit community that any of his predecessors.
But during the seat sharing Manjhi, despite have 13 MLAs who deserted the JDU with him, managed to get 20 seats with the promise that some of his leaders will contest on BJP symbol. On the other hand LJP, which has six Lok Sabha MPs but no MLA in Bihar Assembly, has been given 40 seats which Paswan feels does not adequately reflect the strength of his party while Manjhi has got much than he should have actually.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has already cultivated a Mahadalit vote bank by his welfare schemes and if the BJP has to win, it must break into this community and get its votes which Manjhi and Paswan are capable of. Nitish Kumar formed the Mahadalit community and included 21 of the 22 sub castes into it leaving out the Paswan community which was later on included by Manjhi.
The Mahadalit community consists of the following sub castes - Bantar, Bauri, Bhogta, Bhuiya, Chaupal, Dabgar, Dom (Dhangad), Ghasi, Halalkhor, Hari (Mehtar, Bhangi), Kanjar, Kurariar, Lalbegi, Musahar, Nat, Pan (Swasi), Rajwar, Turi, Dhobi, Pasi, Chamar and Paswan (Dusadh).
This community accounts for 16% of the votes and even as small dent by Manjhi will make it difficult for Nitish Kumar to return as the chief minister. Bihar as 38 SC seats and these communities can also influence results in more than 35 other seats. The districts where Mahadalits are concentrated include Gaya, Nawada, Jehanabad, Kaimur, Aurangabad, Madhepura and Jamui.
While Paswan is basically the leader of only his community and depends on BJP for votes of others, Manjhi claims to represent Mushahars who are the poorest of the poor in Bihar.
On one hand the BJP is going all out to woo this crucial segment which is still supporting Nitish Kumar but Manjhi and Paswan's aggressive attitude towards each other may in fact end up helping the Mahagathbandhan.
In 2010 elections the BJP won 18 of the 38 SC seats while JDU bagged 19 and RJD one. But then the BJP and JDU were in alliance and RJD was the opponent. In 2015 it is just the reverse.
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