What helped Congress dislodge the first NDA government in 2004 was the presence of strong regional power centres of the party, across the country.
Delhi's Sheila Dikshit, Andhra Pradesh's YSR Reddy, Madhya Pradesh's Digvijaya Singh, Assam's Tarun Gogoi were some of the favourites of the high command. They were protected against internal dissidence, given relative freedom to run the their 'fiefdom' and in return these leaders ensured numerical might for the party.
But by 2014, most of these citadels had fallen, the war heroes were battered, bruised and no longer in control.
But there is that one 'Satrap' who ensured a hundred percent compliance from his state. The leader who often missed the limelight, probably, because of what is often called the 'tyranny of numbers'.
As he fights the massive anti-incumbency of three terms and the typical 'shock & awe' campaign of the BJP, he has already created a record of being the longest serving Chief Minister of the state.
But all is not good in Ibobi's Manipur; in fact, very little is. The polling process is taking place under the shadow of a four-month long blockade which saw the prices of essential commodities sky rocket. His term has seen Manipur become the hot bed of 'fake encounters'. Between 2008 to 2011, the state had highest per capita 'fake encounters' across the country and was second only to Uttar Pradesh numerically.
As per the director of the NGO Human Rights Alert, Babloo Loitongbam, who is a petitioner in PIL on the alleged fake encounters in the Supreme Court, Ibobi assumed office in 2002 and there were 90 alleged fake killings in 2003, this reached a peak of 355 in 2008. In fact, Ibobi created a Unified Headquarters of the police, paramilitary forces and Indian Army and bolstered a unit called 'Manipur Commandos'.
For the next 10 years Manipur Commandos became the dreaded agents of death in the Imphal valley.
Herojit Singh, an encounter specialist with the Manipur commandos, became the first encounter cop of the country to speak out about the 'fake encounters', and blamed the CM directly for the killings he committed.
Herojit, speaking about the infamous Sanjit Meitei encounter, where Sanjit was shot dead in broad daylight, inside a pharmacy, said his commanding officer A Jhalajit told him to 'get done with it as the DGP and the CM wanted it'.
But then there are others who claim it was for Ibobi Singh's efforts that insurgency in Manipur took a back seat. He was able to pull Manipur back to a semblance of normalcy. The embers continue, even as the fire subsided. The hill versus valley battle continue to rage even as it took an evil turn in 2015. It was then, that many thought Ibobi is certainly out of the game. But wait, there was a twist in the offing.
Months before the elections, Ibobi Singh announced the creation of 7 new districts. In a seemingly innocuous statement the Chief Minister said: "Manipur will now have 16 districts and the decision for formation of 7 new districts was taken for administrative convenience and to enable the state government take up development works effectively even in the remote and underdeveloped parts of the state."
This came even as the United Naga Council (UNC) launched an economic blockade in Manipur against the formation of Sadar Hills (Kangpokpi) and Jiribam districts.
As a senior journalist based out of Imphal said, “Ibobi has gone one up against the UNC by announcing the new districts. Now, except for UNC, all are happy. Even Kukis who were against the government for much of the last couple of years, are now back after their long-time demand of Sadar Hills district was granted.”
Ibobi blames BJP directly for the blockade and told News18: "BJP government in the centre is in talks with NSCN(IM), UNC is just a front organisation for NSCN(IM), if BJP had wanted it could have removed the blockade by putting pressure on them."
A clutch of senior leaders which include probable CM faces have actually migrated from INC. Senior leaders of BJP whether N Biren or Y Erabot or even O Chauba, all had been part of the Congress at different times.
But even as the electoral arithmetic supports Ibobi, elections are only as much about arithmetic.
Fifteeen years is a really long time. Across Manipur, signs of anti-incumbency are only too visible. But would BJP which unleashed its massive campaign in the state be able to capitalise on it? Or would the Centre-NSCM (IM) talks will have the kind of impact which the Congress hopes?
Unlike his Assam counterpart and three-time Congress Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, Ibobi has kept the High Command at an arm's length. There was just one rally by Rahul Gandhi, rest of it remains a one man show of Chief Minister. But will he be able to pull off what Tarun Gogoi couldn't'?
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