Sitting on his tractor loaded with sugarcane inside a mill in Muzaffarnagar, Hukum Singh complains that the procurement rate of Rs 370 per quintal for his crop is too low. So whom will he vote for? “Of course, the BJP. At least the money is safe in my pocket. If it were the Samajwadi Party’s rule, someone would have put a pistol to my head and taken the money away before I got home,” he says.
Travelling across western Uttar Pradesh for three days this week, News18 encountered many such people who may be unhappy over key issues but say they would still vote for the BJP-RLD combine. The core Bharatiya Janata Party voters among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), and many Jats, say sugarcane prices should be hiked but are quick to add that they only trust the BJP to do so. They cite the transformed law and order situation, payment of sugarcane dues, and the extensive highway network that has come up in western UP as the key reasons.
The farmers who are supporters of the Rashtriya Lok Dal in this belt, and opposed the BJP so far, say they have no choice but to vote for the saffron party, given the new alliance. “Whatever decision Jayant Chaudhary has taken, we agree with that. We are Chaudhary Saheb’s supporters and his word is the last word for us…some Muslims may vote for the Samajwadi Party or Congress but everyone here knows who caused the communal riots in western UP in 2013,” a group of Jats in RLD’s home village of Chhaprauli in Baghpat told News18.
The BJP swept all 16 seats of western UP in 2014 amidst the Modi wave. But once the Bahujan Samaj Party, SP, and RLD joined hands in 2019, the saffron party’s tally here dropped to nine as Muslims voted en masse for the opposition alliance. This was the area in UP where the BJP dropped the most seats compared to 2014. Muslims dominate many seats here and are the decisive factor in constituencies like Saharanpur, Moradabad, Rampur, and Sambhal.
‘Arithmetic Changed’
“The arithmetic has completely changed this time as the RLD is with us and the BSP is going solo,” BJP’s two-time Muzaffarnagar MP Sanjeev Balyan told News18. Muslim voters in Deoband, Saharanpur, and Muzaffarnagar are lamenting the BSP and RLD’s moves. “The Muslim voter in UP is distressed. Mayawati is acting as BJP’s B-team and has deliberately given tickets to a lot of Muslim candidates so that our vote is split. The opposition says the BJP is destroying democracy in the country but it is in fact the opposition like the BSP which is destroying democracy,” an elderly Muslim man in Deoband said.
Deoband falls under Saharanpur, a seat won by the BSP in 2019. This time, both the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance have put up Muslim candidates here against BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal. A group of Muslims in Muzaffarnagar said the RLD had backstabbed the SP by allying with the BJP. “The Muslim vote will get divided and Narendra Modi will come to power again,” they predicted.
The SP has also tied itself up in knots in key seats like Moradabad, Rampur, Bijnor, and Meerut by changing its candidates repeatedly and offending its leaders here like the jailed Azam Khan and its MP from Moradabad, ST Hasan, whose ticket was cut in a rather humiliating manner. “The only seat in west UP where the fight is tough is in Sambhal where SP MP Shafiqur Rahman Barq passed away and his grandson is the candidate now,” admitted a senior SP leader in western UP.
The BSP, which won as many as four seats in western UP in 2019, does not seem to be in the contest in any of the 16 seats now.
Ram Factor, Paper Leaks, Women’s Safety
In a region marred by communal politics and a clear religious divide when it comes to voting, the BJP seems to have played a masterstroke by fielding Arun Govil from Meerut, one of the safest seats of the party where Rajendra Agrawal had been the MP for three continuous terms. The impact is seen in adjoining districts like Muzaffarnagar, Amroha, Moradabad, and even Ghaziabad where people are talking about the move that has forwarded the “Ram temple in Ayodhya” message to western UP as well.
“Agrawal may not have won again, but Arun Govil will win by a record margin,” locals in Meerut told News18. Young girls driving two-wheelers in Meerut city say the situation on safety has drastically improved under the BJP rule and many first-time voters hence prefer the party. “We want to go for night coaching without being harassed on the street…that is a prime concern,” a group of girls told News18 at the Abu Lane road in Meerut, relishing some street food late in the evening.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be starting his campaign from Meerut with a big rally here on Sunday to set the tone for western UP. At the famous Chaudhary Charan Singh University in Meerut, youngsters are critical of the paper leak issue and complain that the state government has not been able to handle the matter. “What is the point of us burning the midnight oil when one can obtain the question paper for some thousand rupees and the exams are rigged? This is a major issue for the youth. Unemployment is also a big concern,” a group of young students at the university said.
Others said the BJP feels that by putting up “outsiders” like Govil, it can influence voters. “We only know that he played the role of Ram in Ramayan. We know nothing else about him,” the youngsters said. Govil told News18 he was born in Meerut and studied until college here.
“Just because ‘Ram’ is in Meerut doesn’t mean Muslims will vote for him,” a group of Muslim shopkeepers in Meerut argued.
The BJP has dropped some of its present MPs in western UP, including VK Singh from Ghaziabad and Rajendra Agrawal from Meerut, to arrest any anti-incumbency. Locals here say new candidates will help the BJP win these seats, as people were not so much upset with the party here but surely with the MP. The vast network of highways built in the region is also bringing dividends for the BJP in these Lok Sabha elections as multiple voters said they could now drive from Delhi to anywhere in western UP within 2-3 hours. The Delhi-Meerut Expressway, the upcoming Delhi-Dehradun Expressway passing through western UP, and the under-construction Ganga Expressway from Meerut to Prayagraj are popular projects here, along with the Delhi-Meerut Regional Rail. “Development is important. Voters want good infrastructure facilities and safety as top priorities,” a family in Moradabad said.
A family from Sambhal having food at the famous Shiva Dhaba-Mama Yadav near Amroha, summed up the situation, saying people will be voting with only one consideration this time – the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Yes, people may have complaints – from sugarcane price and unemployment, etc – but everyone knows only Modi can resolve these issues, not anyone else,” they said.
The lacklustre SP-Congress campaign which is still to take off despite the first phase of polling being just three weeks away, and a largely absent BSP and its supremo Mayawati, are only making the BJP’s chances stronger.
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