C. Vidyasagar Rao is in an unenviable position, as the cliché goes. The debate is no longer whether he, as the acting governor of Tamil Nadu, should have invited VK Sasikala to form the government, once he had accepted incumbent Chief Minister O Panneerselvam’s resignation.
Going strictly by the letter, and probably spirit of the Constitution, he should have but all that is water under the bridge now. The question that now before Rao is simply: where does he go from here?
The deferment of a decision pending a Supreme Court verdict on the disproportionate assets case in which Sasikala is accused Number 2 (the Number 1 being former Tamil Nadu Chief minister J Jayalalithaa, now deceased) has created a situation where there are serious doubts whether the choice of Sasikala as the leader of the AIADMK legislature party was made on the free will of the legislators are not.
Sasikala camps decision to sequester the legislators, said to be about 129 (clear majority in the 234 member assembly) has made the issue murkier, especially with some of the legislators who switched sides in the last few days claiming that they had been asked to sign on blank papers.
Sasikala has also upped the ante by threatening action (the nature of which she has not disclosed) is the governor did not announce his decision by 6 pm today (Feb 13).
The leaked note on “the governor’s state of mind” on the issue made it clear that he was seriously taking Sasikala’s possible conviction by the Supreme Court that would render her disqualified from becoming a member of the legislature, and therefore ineligible to be the chief minister.
But how long can the governor wait for the Supreme Court verdict? Last week, when an urgent mention was made on behalf of the Karnataka government that had appealed against the High Court ruling quashing a special court’s conviction of Jayalalithaa and the others, the Apex Court bench had said that it would deliver the verdict this week. With the case not being listed for Monday, the general expectation is that it might be delivered either on Tuesday or Wednesday.
If it does not come in the next couple of days, can he wait any longer? Rao has already burnt his bridges on this count. He has no option but to wait.
If the verdict comes in the next couple of days, and Sasikala’s conviction is confirmed, Rao’s predicament might look to have been solved. But that may not necessarily be so. In the event of her conviction being confirmed, nothing prevents Sasikala and the MLAs, now cooling heels in a resort, from electing one of her own loyalist nominee’s like Edappadi Palanichamy as the leader of the legislature party and stake claim again.
If on the other hand if her acquittal is upheld, it would seem that Rao has no option but to accept last week’s legislature party resolution electing her as the leader, and hence Chief Minister nominee.
Though the Chennai police, after an inquiry, told the Madras High Court that the MLAs are staying at the resort out of their own free will, it is being speculated that in either case, the governor might still ask to meet the legislator individually and ascertain their will. This is looking more and more unlikely though as the pro-Sasikala MLAs do not seem to be breaking ranks.
However, this again is fraught with problem. The Supreme Court has established in the SR Bommai case that the place for testing the strength is not the Raj Bhavan but the floor of the assembly.
The other option that is being bandied about is the possibility of asking Panneerselvam to prove his majority or lack of it on the floor of the House. But Panneerselvam’s resignation has already been accepted and his protestations, coming two days after the original sin, that it had been taken under duress, cannot be a reason for him being given another chance.
Having painted himself into a corner, Rao can only wait for the verdict and either swear in Sasikala (if she is acquitted) or another person (if she her conviction is confirmed) chosen by the legislature party as chief minister.
Though this may be the legal and constitutional position, on the ground level the political reality may change. As the days drag, the ground swell against Sasikala as chief minister is increasing, and the steady defection of Member of Parliament and other senior leaders, though inconsequential in terms of strength in the assembly, might put psychological pressure on some more MLAs to change their minds to bring the strength of the pro-Sasikala MLAs below the magic figure of 118 that she would require to win a floor test.
Though there is no sign of any further defection from the Sasikala camp of MLAs, the Panneerselvam camp hopes that some more MLAs might switch sides when the voting in the motion of confidence does take place, defying the whip and leaving themselves open for disqualification under the Anti-defection law, to defeat the motion.
The floor test, if and when it takes place, is not likely to be a smooth affair. The spectre of January 28, 1988, when in the aftermath of MG Ramachandran’s death, his widow Janaki, who had been ‘elected leader of the AIADMK legislator party by a majority of legislators (who incidentally were opposed to Jayalalithaa), tried to prove her majority looms large. The entire process ended in utter chaos and unprecedented violence within the Assembly hall.
If a similar situation does arise, the governor may take the extraordinary step of recommending the dissolution of the assembly, and imposition of President’s Rule, as was done in 1988. In either case, the state will be plunged into further crisis.
There is also the possibility of legal pressure on the Governor to act soon if either Sasikala or a maverick like Subramanian Swamy decide to move the Supreme Court, seeking a direction to Rao to immediately invite Sasikala to form the government.
Whichever way he turns, Rao will emerge from the current crisis with muck sticking on to him. There is a perception that he has been acting on behalf of the BJP at the Centre. In fact, Sasikala even hinted at it during her press conference and her address to the MLAs at the resort on Sunday evening. Sasikala had said that some forces had made enquiries to find out whether she would be a pliable chief minister and having found that she was made of sterner stuff, had been backing Panneerselvam who is seen to be pliable. The remark, contrary to general belief that it was against the DMK, was a veiled attack on the BJP, which is desperately trying to gain a toe-hold in the state.
Kalyan Arun is senior Print and Television journalist and political analyst who has written on Tamil Nadu politics for more than three decades. Currently teaches in Asian College of Journalism. All Views are personal.
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