Just a few weeks ahead of the announcement of dates for the 2024 general elections, the question that many are asking in Odisha is whether there will be a pre-poll alliance between the state’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and principal opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)? Strange though it may seem, there is no indication yet of this question being answered convincingly or being put to rest.
Odisha goes for simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly polls, and the political chatter is that the BJD and BJP will hammer out a seat-sharing agreement and face the two elections in an alliance. The parties were in a coalition for eleven years beginning in 1997, and, prior to becoming the chief minister, Naveen Patnaik was a union minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government in the late 1990s.
However, 2024 is not 1997. Whether it is in terms of the MLAs in the state legislature or Members of Parliament, the BJP has pushed the Congress to third position and emerged as the principal opposition party. If the BJD and BJP come together, they would cede the opposition space completely to the Congress.
Not just that; the BJP cannot claim to be the challenger of five-time chief minister Naveen Patnaik or the alternative to the BJD. Additionally, the Patnaik-led BJD’s dominance in elections has been phenomenal. In the current assembly, the BJD has 112 of the total 147 MLAs, the BJP has 23, and the Congress just 9. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJD won 12 of 21 constituencies, the BJP 8, and the Congress 1. Looking at the impressive gains that the BJP made between 2014 and 2019 and given that the party is poised to do even better in 2024, there is little political sense in an alliance.
The buzz was sparked a couple of days ago by a remark of BJP leader Vijaypal Singh Tomar, who was in Bhubaneswar to oversee the party’s poll preparedness. When asked whether there will be an alliance with the BJD, Tomar said, “I can’t answer this now. People at the Centre will decide. We will accept whatever is their decision. However, we are prepared to contest on all seats.”
Meanwhile, speaking to reporters, Odisha BJP chief ruled out an alliance, saying the party will contest alone on all Lok Sabha and assembly seats in the state.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Odisha on March 5, which happens to be the 108th birth anniversary of late chief minister Biju Patnaik, father of CM Naveen Patnaik. The BJD has made grand arrangements to commemorate the day and reiterated its demand for a Bharat Ratna for Biju Patnaik. The buzz in the state is that the PM may announce the honour for the late CM, which will galvanise the alliance between the two parties. PM Modi has already announced five Bharat Ratnas this year, for former Bihar chief minister and socialist leader late Karpoori Thakur, late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, late agricultural scientist MS Swaminathan, BJP stalwart and former deputy PM LK Advani, and late Prime Minister and farmer leader Chaudhary Charan Singh.
During his last visit to Odisha at the beginning of February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised chief minister Naveen Patnaik and described him as a “friend”. Earlier last month, the BJD despite having the numbers, chose to support BJP candidate Ashwini Vaishnaw in the Rajya Sabha polls. Apart from this, the BJD with its 12 MPs has backed the BJP-led central government on crucial legislation like the abrogation of Article 370 sections and the Delhi Services Bill. While one will have to wait for the PM to spell out his pitch for Odisha, observers say a friendship between the ruling party and the opposition during election season does not bode well for either, though it may help the BJP close in on its target of “Mission 400” for the Lok Sabha polls.
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