Superstar Rajnikanth will on December 31 announce the date for the launch of his much-awaited political party. Irrespective of how many times he has announced and disappointed in the past, the declaration makes headlines the moment it is made. It is speculated that this time it is for real.
And he has threatened to alter the Dravidian political field with his “spiritual politics”. Can he, and will he? If he does not take the jump after this, he may never be taken seriously. But this is not a movie script where a statement can set the box office ablaze and Rajini is fully aware of that. Stars have been successful in Dravidian politics only when they had the right script.
To recap briefly, the late MG Ramachandran, founder of the AIADMK, had betrayal by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam under M Karunanidhi as the story line in the 1970s. J Jayalalithaa had ‘victimization by the DMK’ narrative in 1991.
Stars like the legendary Sivaji Ganesan to Kamal Hassan, who did not get their script right, failed.
It is true that there is a definite third alternative vote base in the state. When a much lesser star Vijayakanth launched his politics in 2006, he instantly got 8 percent votes, and Rajini will get more. But Vijayakanth won just one out of the 234 assembly seats with that vote share.
There is disenchantment within the AIADMK and DMK, and the absence of a tall personality adds to Rajini power. Even if all this takes him to a 20 percent vote share, it is not enough to be a decisive seat-winner.
In 2019, the DMK and its allies polled a 33 percent vote share to sweep the Lok Sabha polls, and in 2016 the AIADMK, under Jayalalithaa, polled 40 percent vote share to get 135 assembly seats. The DMK alliance with 39.85 percent vote share managed only 96 seats.
Till Rajni can cross that kind of vote share threshold, he will only be a spoiler and not decisive winner. Given his star power, anything short of a clear victory and numbers to decide the next Chief Minister would be a failure.
He has threatened to re write conventional politics in general and Dravidian politics in particular – the messiah of change narrative – and this makes it delicate to form alliances with established political parties. It is not impossible, but is extremely difficult.
For instance, he has a seeming affinity to the BJP and even had a virtual chat with home minister Amit Shah during the latter’s recent Chennai visit. But an open alliance will affect the Rajni optics, creating a perception of being a proxy for the BJP and alienating him from other regional forces.
One theory floated by analysts is that the BJP will continue with the AIADMK alliance and have a tacit understanding with Rajni to split the opposition vote and make gains. But this only makes him a spoiler and not the hero.
Insiders in the DMK suggest that Rajni is not thrilled at the prospect of DMK president MK Stalin becoming CM. But despite that, the fact is that Rajni would take both AIADMK and DMK votes as a third player. In fact, given that the DMK seems more organised and its core voter is committed to the party ideology over decades, it is the AIADMK, facing leadership questions, that may be worried about losing a larger base to the superstar.
The parties keen on his entry, even the BJP, would only see him as a guest star to bolster their script and not contribute to making him the political superstar. He will have to do that on his own and circumvent even allies while at it.
It is tough for him to share the stage as equals with any aspiring chief ministerial leader, like an Anbumani Ramadass of the Pattali Makkal Katchi, and he has not tested the resources, infrastructure, time, and energy for a solo act. Frankly, it is not clear what his political objective is. It is can be as cryptic as any Rajni comment.
Ultimately, there is a filter bubble of political voices around the superstar that wants him in politics as it serves their purpose. But does it serve his? If he does enter politics, he will be gambling with the Rajni brand and it may not be a wise wager to place.
Read all the Latest News, Breaking News and Coronavirus News here
Comments
0 comment