The much talked about fourth wave of Covid-19 might not arrive. Professor at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur’s Maninder Agarwal in his latest research claims that there might not be a fourth Covid-19 pandemic in the country. Citing two major reasons the professor claims that high natural immunity among people and no significant mutation of genome sequencing could mean lower chances of another nation-wide wave.
He had earlier devised the SUTRA mathematical model to predict the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Prof Agarwal from the institute’s department of computer science engineering.
According to the research, a large number of people have acquired immunity acquired by a previous infection. Over 90 per cent of India’s population has acquired natural immunity, as per the SUTRA study. It acts as a strong protection against infection.
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It also stated that as per ICMR surveys, it has been consistently found that the actual number of infected people is more than 30 times the reported numbers. Further, in an extensive study done for 36 countries across the world, which covered more than half of the world’s population across continents, it was found that the severity of the Omicron wave in these countries was inversely proportional to the level of natural immunity present in them, reported the news agency.
The second reason why the fourth wave of Covid-19 may not happen is that genome sequencing has not shown any significantly new mutant even in Delhi-NCR. Variants belonging to the lineage of Omicron, referred to as BA. 2, BA. 2. 9, BA. 2. 10, and BA. 2. 12, have been detected only. This means that immunity acquired against Omicron will continue to hold against all its variants. Hence, with more than 90 per cent people in India already immune against Omicron, a fourth wave is likely to happen.
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Regarding the recent increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in the country, the IIT Kanpur professor, in his study, said that it is due to all restrictions being lifted. The new variants of Omicron are slightly more infectious. It spreads faster among the non-immune population, however, the increase is not likely to be substantial though, he added.
The current situation, however, is not a cause of concern as a fourth wave is possible only if there is a new mutant that bypasses natural immunity significantly. However, precautions need to taken. Vaccination is good choice when it comes to preventing serious illness but not for preventing mild infection by Omicron. The study does not imply that vaccination is not required as it protects against major illness and is extremely useful.
Countries that have followed a strict zero-Covid policy such as South Korea, Hong Kong, and China are going through a difficult period at present with high infection numbers, the study added. Zero-covid policy ensures that natural immunity does not build up, thus leaving the population susceptible to Omicron infection.
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