Despite concerns over likely impact by El Nino, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon for the country as a whole.
The rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm for the period June to September, announced IMD chief M Mohapatra. The forecast carries a model error of +/-5%.
The forecast indicates the rainfall could be normal in the southern peninsula — Karnataka, Kerala, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu — as well as in East Central India including Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha, and Jammu & Kashmir in the north.
However, there is a higher probability of below normal rains over parts of Northwest India mainly states of Haryana, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan, as well as parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, and Telangana.
Discussing the impact of El Nino, the weather department said the conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain neutral, and El Nino is likely to develop during the monsoon season. However, it’s impact could be seen on the monsoon only during the second-half, post July.
The top weather scientist also asserted that not all El Nino years bring below normal rains.
According to the department, this year, the negative impact of El Nino is expected to be countered with the positive impact of two other meteorological conditions — a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and reduced snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere this time.
“This time the snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere was less. This is favourable for the southwest monsoon,” he added.
IMD will update this forecasts with second stage detailed forecast in the last week of May.
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