For the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which failed to open its account in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, or even get over 1% vote share, the results were sobering, even if on expected lines.
Speaking about its poll performance, in a statement, the party said: “Aam Aadmi Party is in the formative stage in these states and we were contesting to ensure that our message reaches everyone. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its deposits on 31 seats in the recently concluded Karnataka elections. PM Modi himself campaigned in Andhra Pradesh, but BJP lost on all 173/173 seats and scored less than NOTA. Did this affect the BJP vote share in Gujarat?”
The party did not contest in Telangana. For the AAP, which observed its 12th anniversary on November 26, contesting three elections simultaneously in relatively large states, with its top leaders behind bars on allegations of corruption, these elections could not have been tougher. The party carried out a comparatively low-key campaign compared to Gujarat last year.
Newly minted as a national party, and with AAP’s biggest leaders party supremo Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann campaigning in all three states, the results could be a dampener for its expansion plans. Earlier this year, the party made a determined foray into Gujarat and ended up with a respectable five seats and 14% vote share.
Kejriwal traveled to Gujarat almost every week in the run-up to the polls, and along with Mann, held road shows, rallies, town halls in a high-voltage campaign.
CHANGE IN STRATEGY
For the AAP, it was a battle for survival vs battle to expand its footprint and the former consumed maximum energy.
However, when it came to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the party adopted a different strategy, not even contesting on all seats in all these states. There were road shows and a few public meetings by Kejriwal and Mann, but no town halls or even big-ticket interviews.
The AAP’s best hope of winning a constituency was Singrauli in Madhya Pradesh, which also came to a naught, with its Rani Agarwal losing. In fact, Kejriwal campaigned in Singrauli along with Mann after shooting off a letter challenging the summons of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) to appear before it the same day. For the AAP, the circumstances could not have been more adverse.
After the arrests of its three senior leaders — Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh and Satyendar Jain — the barely eleven-year-old party found itself batting allegations of corruption and firefighting to consolidate its position in Delhi and Punjab. With three top leaders and, communication strategist Vijay Nair, behind bars, the AAP fought the battle in the absence of its key lieutenants. It was left to the AAP’s organization in charge and MP Sandeep Pathak to carry the responsibility of these elections.
Unlike Punjab, Gujarat or Goa, not even AAP’s second rung of leaders campaigned in these states. AAP leader Jasmine Shah said, “For a small party like AAP, it was a tough battle. Simultaneously, fighting three state elections is always going to be daunting task. We will take lessons and accordingly plan for the future.”
NO UNDERSTANDING WITH ALLIES
The other missed opportunity, of course, was the refusal of the Congress, which fancied its chances especially in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, to get into any understanding with any of its own allies. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are fairly large states for the AAP to make meaningful inroads. Even in Chhattisgarh, Pathak’s home state, the AAP failed to open an account.
The less than expected performance of the Congress, which lost all the three heartland states, gave the AAP reason to steal some solace. Shah tweeted: “After today’s results, @AamAadmi Party emerges as the largest opposition party in North India with two state governments – Delhi and Punjab”. Incidentally, the Congress is in power in just one state of Himachal Pradesh.
Speaking to News 18, Shah said, “Very clearly, the AAP is emerging as a dominant force in North of India. It is not just having a two-state government, but having very sound margins in these. The Congress is limited to one state. What I am stating is arithmetic. We are the largest opposition force in North India, it means that AAP also has an important role to play as far as India alliance is concerned.”
Shah was referring to the AAP’s 92 MLAs of 117 MLAs in Punjab and 62 out of 70 MLAs in Delhi and argued with the strength of the governments a party has in North India, not in terms of vote share where the Congress is clearly ahead. AAP’s rationale is in terms of opposition parties governing in North India, it is the largest.
Kejriwal is one of the leaders within the INDIA bloc who had pressed for early seat-sharing talks so that campaigns can get off the ground. However, that never happened with the Congress preferring to wait for the results of the assembly polls before talking 2024 alliance talks forward. The AAP is still serious about the alliance. As Shah said, “When we joined the alliance, it was very clearly for the idea that if BJP has to be stopped in 2024, it can only happen through a strong opposition alliance like the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). We have always supported the idea of INDIA alliance and will continue to support it.”
Given the dominance of the BJP in the Hindi heartland, the political parties within the INDIA may stick to each other out of sheer compulsion. Shah said, “There was a feeling among alliance partners that they were not given equal respect. This is not healthy considering the future of the alliance. Hopefully, we will see greater coordination and communication among all alliance partners in the next four months that we have to go before the Lok Sabha elections. For the AAP, it would be looking at Delhi, Punjab, Goa, Gujarat and Chandigarh.”
On the alliance front, the party also clearly stated its stand, saying: “We also extend our congratulations to the Congress on a spectacular win in Telangana. This is, however, not reflective of the mood of the nation for Lok Sabha as the Congress won MP, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2018, but the BJP won the 2019 Lok Sabha. India alliance talks will now be held on December 6 in Delhi, in which, we will decide the future course of action.”
All eyes are now on seat-sharing talks within the INDIA bloc will take place. With a mere four months left for 2024 general elections, time is running out. For the AAP and the Congress, there is political opportunity in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh, Goa and Gujarat.
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