A week after losing the US presidential election, while Donald Trump is still refusing to accept the verdict and relying on a string of court challenges to give him four more years in the White House, President-elect Joe Biden is preparing for the transition even as he largely ignores the chaos.
To analyse what a Biden administration could mean for India, let’s look at some of his recent speeches and what his stated view on foreign policy has been during the campaign period.
Strategic convergence – the China factor
On August 16, 2020, while addressing the Indian community virtually at an Independence Day event, here’s what the then Democratic nominee Joe Biden said.
Quotes:
“15 years ago I was leading the efforts to approve the historic civil nuclear deal with India. I said if the United States and India became closer partners then the world would be a safer place.”
“Standing with India and confronting threats it faces in its region and along the border.”
Analysis:
Through the first quote he underlined the fact that he has stood for improving the partnership with India and by citing the example of the crucial nuclear deal struck by Manmohan Singh and George Bush Jr, a Republican, he further emphasised that there is bipartisan support to deepen ties with India.
His second quote reveals the strategic overlaps in the region vis-à-vis countering a common threat – China. Hence the support extended to India in the current stand-off at the LAC by the Trump administration is likely to continue. In a briefing before the India-US 2+2 dialogue in October a senior US administration official had told News18.com, “I fully expect – have no reason to believe that in the event of there being a new administration following the upcoming elections here in the United States that the policy with regard to India would change. I think both parties are largely aligned on their interest in supporting and deepening the partnership.”
This could in turn also mean a greater thrust on a defence partnership. This could be read two ways – deeper engagement in military-to-military exercises/engagement, greater thrust on free and open Indo-Pacific. This could also mean a greater push to buy defence equipment from the US.
Trade
In a write-up in the March/April 2020 issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, titled Why America Must Lead Again, here’s what Joe Biden had said.
Quotes:
“More than 95 percent of the world’s population lives beyond our borders—we want to tap those markets. We need to be able to build the very best in the United States and sell the very best around the world.”
“… taking down trade barriers that penalize Americans and resisting a dangerous global slide toward protectionism.”
“As president, I will not enter into any new trade agreements until we have invested in Americans and equipped them to succeed in the global economy.”
Analysis:
Much of these quotes seems to have emanated directly from America’s fight with China on trade issues. However, this could well play out for India too. After all, his predecessor has accused India repeatedly of levying unfair trade tariffs. Joe Biden might find it difficult to completely ignore this narrative set by Donald Trump. He is unlikely to be as harsh as Trump or use social media to arm-twist India.
However, trade issues, especially with a possible economic downturn after the pandemic, will continue to remain. The US will seek greater market access as is clear from what Biden has already said in the quotes mentioned above. This could be one of the prerequisites for restoring India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status that was revoked in 2019. His quotes also suggest that the elusive trade deal or mini trade deal will continue to remain that way for some time to come.
Immigration issues
On the Biden-Harris campaign website page, here’s what is said with regards to the issue of immigration.
Quotes:
“Trump’s policies are also bad for our economy. For generations, immigrants have fortified our most valuable competitive advantage–our spirit of innovation and entrepreneurship.”
“As President… He will… Modernize America’s immigration system… Welcome immigrants in our communities.”
Analysis:
Reports from the US suggest that the Biden administration is likely to clear citizenship for at least 5 lakh Indians. There are also expected reversals in restrictions to the H1B visa norms put in place by the Trump administration. Not only does he plan to increase the numbers of the H1B visa of which Indian professionals are the largest beneficiaries but he is also likely to eliminate the limit on employment-based visa.
Also, significantly, any move on trying to scrap the work permit on H4 visa for spouses is most certain to be reversed by the Biden administration. India had lobbied hard for provisions being made for the spouses of H1B visas to be able to work. The Obama administration had cleared it, benefitting a large number of Indian spouses. But, in a contentious move, the Trump administration had moved to scrap this provision.
Human rights/democratic values
On the Biden-Harris campaign website page under the heading ‘Joe Biden’s Agenda For Muslim- American Communities’ it was stated—
Quote:
“In Kashmir, the Indian government should take all necessary steps to restore rights for all the people of Kashmir. Restrictions on dissent, such as preventing peaceful protests or shutting or slowing down the Internet, weaken democracy. Joe Biden has been disappointed by the measures that the government of India has taken with the implementation and aftermath of the National Register of Citizens in Assam and the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act into law. These measures are inconsistent with the country’s long tradition of secularism and with sustaining a multi-ethnic and multi-religious democracy.”
Analysis:
The Democratic Party-associated Congressional Progressive Caucus has been raising the issue of human rights with regards to the dilution of Article 370 and the Citizenship Amendment Act as well as NRC in Assam. Representative Pramila Jayapal had also moved a resolution in the Congress last year regarding Kashmir. This made the India government openly express its displeasure with the Democrat. External affairs minister S Jaishankar refused to meet a group of lawmakers that included Jayapal. He later said, “I am aware of that resolution. I don’t think it is fair understanding of the situation in J&K or fair characterisation of what the Government of India is doing. I have no interest in meeting her.”
The issue of human rights could turn out to be a niggling one for the Indian government with the Biden administration. It is unlikely that either Biden or Harris would mince words on that aspect.
Climate change
Here’s what Biden tweeted after Donald Trump referred to India as “filthy” in the context of pollution in the last presidential debate at Nashville.
Quote/Tweet:
“It’s not how you talk about friends and it’s not how you solve global challenges like climate change.”
Analysis:
With frequent wildfires, the latest to hit Irvine in California and increased frequency of storms that hit the US, climate change and global warming are much talked about issues in America. Educated Americans, supporters of the Democrats, had been seeking a leader who takes measures in the right direction rather than deny the phenomenon like Donald Trump. Trump’s exit of the Paris Accord came in for huge criticism. With Biden’s words it does appear that he would once again bring America back in the picture of offering collaboration in mitigating the fallouts of climate change that are likely to be felt most harshly by developing countries like India.
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