With the countdown to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections starting, the Assembly elections results of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram on December 8 and 9 will give an indication which way the wind is blowing. The results are extremely important for the two big national parties - Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
While the former is battling allegations of humongous corruption scandals, price rise, policy paralysis, economic slowdown poor governance and slow decision along with a host of issues, the BJP is keen to project it self as a party that can take the country out of the quagmire. BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi had invested a lot of time and energy is the state elections and a good show by the party will boost his candidature further and push the Congress in a more defensive position.
The Congress and BJP are the principal rivals in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh even as Delhi is witnessing a three-cornered contest for the first time with the emergence of Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party. The counting for these four states will start at 8 am on Sunday and by 12 noon the picture is expected to be clear.
Mizoram does not have any BJP presence with the Congress fighting it out with the Mizoram Democratic Alliance that comprises of Mizo National Front, Mizoram People's Conference and Maraland Democratic Alliance. The counting will take place on December 9.
As per the post-poll and exit poll surveys by various news organisations including CNN-IBN, the BJP is on an upswing and expected to retain power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh while the party is likely to storm back to power in Rajasthan after five years. In Delhi, AAP's strong debut has made the contest very tough to predict but the BJP is ahead and the Congress seems to be headed for a humiliating third place finish after ruling India's only city state for 15 years.
All the states saw a very high percentage of the voters coming out to exercise their franchise. While in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the high voter turnout was seen as going in favour of the ruling BJP governments, in Rajasthan and Delhi it is likely to go against the incumbent Congress regime as it fights with its back against the wall.
CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS post-poll survey
Delhi
The voters of Delhi seem to have pressed the exit button for the Congress in the December 4 Assembly elections. The ruling Congress is likely to be relegated to the third position after 15 years in the office.
The CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS post-poll survey predicts the end of Sheila Dikshit era in the national capital. It also predicts the arrival of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on the national scene as a serious player.
The BJP is likely to emerge either as the single largest party or as a clear winner with 32-42 seats, according to the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar.
The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is likely to come second with 13-21 seats while Congress is expected to win just 9-17 seats. Others in the fray are likely to get 1-5 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly.
Delhi witnessed a record turnout of around 67 per cent in the December 4 polling. In an unprecedented exercise, voting went on till 9.30 PM -four-and-a-half hours past the 5 PM voting deadline - when the last ballot was cast by waiting voters in a booth in Okhla Assembly segment.
The stunning voter turnout that shattered the previous highest of 61.75 per cent in the first elections to the state Assembly in 1993 saw voting hours being extended in several polling booths beyond the closing time of 5 PM as around 1.7 lakh voters were still waiting in winding queues to decide the fate of 810 candidates.
There is heavy security at all 14 centres across the city where EVMs have been kept in strong rooms for counting. According to election officials, 24X7 security cover has been mounted with Delhi police personnel and Central Paramilitary Force guarding EVMs and the surroundings.
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh continues to be enamoured of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and is all set to vote the BJP back to power, for a third straight term. Riding high on a pro-incumbency mood, Chouhan is likely to score another big victory when votes are counted on December 8 for the 230-member state Assembly according to the CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS post-poll survey.
Chouhan-led BJP is set to win 136-146 seats and retain power, while the Congress is a distant second with just 67-77 seats in it kitty according to the projections made by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute. Smaller parties are expected to bag 13-21 seats.
More than 70 per cent of the state's 4.65 crore electorate exercised their right to decide the fate of 2,583 candidate for the 230-member Assembly. Chouhan contested from two constituencies - Budhni and Vidisha. The BJP-government is fighting for an unprecedented third consecutive victory in the state where Congress was ousted 10 years ago.
Rajasthan:
The BJP juggernaut is all set to trounce Congress in Rajasthan and score an impressive victory according to the CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS post-poll survey.
Riding on a strong anti-incumbency wave against the Ashok Gehlot government which has led to a massive nine per cent gain in vote share from the 2008 Assembly elections and the high popularity of its leader Vasundhra Raje, the BJP is set to make a triumphant return to power after a five year hiatus.
Raje-led BJP is likely to win 126-136 seats leaving the Congress way behind with only 49-57 and other smaller parties are expected to bag 12-20 seats according to the prediction made by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar. In 2008 the Congress won 96 seats, BJP 78, BSP six while 22 went to other smaller parties.
Rajasthan witnessed 74.38 per cent turnout in the Assembly elections, the highest ever in the desert state. The electors have decided the fate of 2,087 candidates for 199 Assembly seats. Of the 200 Assembly seats, polling was adjourned in Churu constituency, where nine people were in the fray, to December 13, following the death of BSP candidate Jagdish Meghwal.
Counting of votes will take place at 37 centres in 33 districts of the state. In the state capital, counting of votes cast in 19 constituencies will take place in Rajasthan college and Commerce college.
Chhattisgarh:
The Raman Singh-led BJP administration is expected to retain Chhattisgarh in the 2013 Assembly elections. This victory will mean a third straight term for the BJP.
A CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS post-poll survey projects 45-55 seats for the ruling BJP in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly as predicted by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar based on survey data. The main opposition party, the Congress, is projected to win 32-40 seats, while others are expected to bag 1-7 seats.
The state saw a hotly contested battle between Chief Minister Raman Singh-led BJP and the Congress, whose top leadership was massacred by Naxals in May dealing the party a massive blow. A total of 985 candidates are in the fray and 22,158 EVMs were used. The counting is being held in 27 district headquarters.
Director General of Police Ramniwas said around 5,000 security personnel will be on duty. "A three-layer security has been arranged at each counting centre. Additional security forces will be deployed in the Naxal-affected districts," he said. Joint Chief Electoral Officer DD Singh said 1,375 supervisors, as many counting assistants and 90 general observers appointed by Election Commission have been deployed on duty.
Voting in the Naxal-infested state took place in two phases to minimise the threat of the rebels disrupting elections. The state was put under heavy security blanket and several booths were located inside paramilitary camps in the jungles of southern Chhattisgarh.
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