Ever since the BJP started flirting with the idea of a non-Jat alliance in Jat-dominated Haryana, the results have been remarkably surprising for the party.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won seven seats out of Haryana’s 10 seats (BJP contested on seven while Haryana Janhit Congress contested as its ally in three, winning none), while INLD won two and the Congress got just one. In 2019, the BJP went solo and pulled a remarkable 10-seat stunt with the Congress not winning any seats and its collective vote share stagnating at 28 per cent. The share of the BJP shot up to 58 per cent — a 23 per cent jump from its 2014 performance.
But with Jats standing unitedly behind the Congress this time, can the Grand Old Party punctuate BJP’s dream run by wresting a few seats?
JATS WANT TO VOTE EN BLOC
In the 2019 assembly election, the Jats stood firmly behind Dushyant Chautala’s new outfit JJP. But after the election results were out, he forged a post-poll alliance with the BJP that earned him the ‘traitor’ tag among Jats.
INLD — the original Jat party of Devi Lal — is now, at best, a reminder of a party that once had a glorious presence in this milk belt. With former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a Jat himself, urging Jats not to get their votes split, it is widely believed that most Jats would vote en bloc for the Congress in Jat-dominated seats like Rohtak, Hisar, Kurukshetra and Sirsa.
Jats constitute around 26-28 per cent of the state’s population. While the BJP has employed its tried-and-tested non-Jat alliance of Dalit, Brahmin, Gujjars, Baniyas and Punjabis, the Congress has a real chance in these four seats.
In Hooda’s bastion Rohtak, Deepender Hooda lost by 7,000-odd votes in the last Lok Sabha elections after being the three-time MP and still bitterly remembers the loss. “Last time, there were many issues. I lost by 7,000-odd votes in Rohtak…I won in the EVM count, but I lost in postal ballots.” However, he is hopeful of a win this time from not just Rohtak but a majority of seats in Haryana. While that may be a tall claim, Congress is definitely in the fight in these four seats.
Similarly, Sonia Gandhi loyalist Kumari Selja, who is fielded from Sirsa, claimed she is “winning”; so did Hisar Congress candidate Jai Prakash — a three-time MP from Hisar who also served as a Union minister in Chandra Shekhar’s cabinet in 1990.
EASIER SAID THAN DONE
While the Jat support in these four Lok Sabha seats gives the Congress an initial push, the counter-polarisation is even bigger.
News18 has found how cross-sections of castes as diverse as Valmiki, Gujjars and Brahmins are united when it comes to voting for the BJP where Jat consolidation has taken place.
Take Hisar, for instance, where 33 per cent are Jats. All non-Jat communities have come together to support BJP candidate Ranjit Singh Chautala — coincidentally a Jat himself. There are over 70,000 Prajapatis/Kumhars, over 1,80,000 Brahmins, 65,000 Punjabis, and over 36,000 Bishnois, and the rest 4,00,000 voters are from various Scheduled Castes and Backward Classes in Hisar.
Lucky, a voter who hails from the Valmiki community, told News18 that almost all communities (apart from Jats) will vote for the BJP in Hisar. Neeraj, a local from the Gujjar community, and Surendra Jakhar form the Jakhar community too said Gujjars and Jakhars will throw their weight behind BJP.
Also, to counter Congress’ advantage in these four seats, the BJP has fielded a Jat from the Chautala family in Hisar; Ashok Tanwar — former Haryana Congress chief — in Sirsa; current MP Arvind Sharma — a non-Jat — from Rohtak; and Navin Jindal — a former Congress MP from Kurukshetra.
But the BJP will have to keep its non-Jat votes as united as Jat votes till election day and ensure they reach their respective booths in the sweltering Haryana heat. In case this doesn’t happen, the Congress has a real chance of altering BJP’s 100 per cent strike rate in the state.
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