Two top politicians from Karnataka would be spending a sleepless night in Bangalore, on Friday. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his one time mentor-turned-arch rival former prime minister HD Deve Gowda have a lot to gain and much to lose in Saturday's two Lok Sabha bypoll results. Both have taken it as a matter of prestige and the results will open a new chapter in the vicious politics of Karnataka.
Both Bangalore Rural and Mandya Lok Sabha seats are Vokkaliga dominated areas and were held by the JDS. The JDS state chief and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy and another JDS MP Cheluvarayaswamy quit their Parliament seats Bangalore Rural and Mandya respectively after they got elected to the state Assembly in the 2012 May.
Nobody wanted a by-poll just 6-7 months ahead of general elections. But, the Election Commission has to perform its Constitutional duties and the bypoll was declared
HD Kumaraswamy fielded his wife Anitha from his seat Bangalore Rural to take on the local Congress strongman DK Shivakumar, who has fielded his younger brother DK Suresh. For Shivakumar, it is a 'do or die' battle. He was denied a Cabinet berth after Congress's spectacular victory in 2012 May after some Congressmen and public figures demanded that all 'tainted' MLAs should be kept out of the Cabinet.
According to party insiders, the Congress high command has now agreed to make him a minister, if the Congress manages to wrest the seat from the JDS. If the Congress wins, DK Shivakumar's stars may shine bright once again. But, it will also end Gowdas dominance and the family politics for sometime.
The neighboring Mandya is also a keenly watched seat. The Congress sprang a surprise by fielding a famous Kannada heroine Ramya to end the JDS rule there.
Ramya, who actively campaigned for the party in the recent Assembly polls, was not expecting this challenging role. Mandya district in charge minister and a veteran Kannada hero Ambareesh chose Ramya over local Congress leaders just to settle his personal scores with Mandya district Congress president and former minister MS Athmananda.
Ramya lost her foster father RT Narayan on the day of her of the nomination and it created a big sympathy wave for her. The Congress leveled baseless charges against Kumaraswamy's wife Anitha in Bangalore Rural and the JDS returned the favour by attacking Ramya in Mandya.
The BJP, which has a marginal presence in these seats, shocked the Congress by not fielding candidates in favour of the JDS. The KJP chief BS Yeddyurappa allegedly asked his supporters to vote for the Congress.
This bypoll has a lot of symbolic importance. Siddaramaiah has to win to prove that he is in command and his triumph in the Assembly polls was no fluke. It will also allow him to tighten the grip over both party and government. He can have a bigger say in the selection of candidates in the general elections, if he delivers these two seats.
It is no secret that anti-Siddaramaiah faction in the Congress is secretly hoping that the party will lose both seats. They fear a victory will help Siddaramaiah to consolidate his power and alienate old guards in the Congress.
For the Gowda clan, victory in both seats is inevitable to flex their muscle ahead of general elections. They can also weaken the position of Siddaramaiah whom they detest the most. A loss in both the seats can certainly deal a body blow to the party and can also lead to exodus from the Gowda camp.
Who will win in this Gowdas vs Siddaramaiah battle? Wait till 12 o'clock on Saturday.
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