Democracy is considered the best form of governance, and rightly so. However, it could also be a tricky, unpredictable, and frustrating business.
Consider the following: You are the citizen of the world’s most powerful country, which is going to the polls to choose its next leader for four years. There is so much riding on your choice, not just domestically but across the globe. You are expected to choose wisely. But you have a problem. You are being called upon to choose between a near-octogenarian demagogue who is feared and disliked except by his die-hard followers and an octogenarian who is uninspiring and unpopular. What do you do? There are no easy answers.
The average voter is disillusioned. She so wishes to see a different slate of contenders who are younger, capable of rising above partisan politics, and relatable.
A few American analysts have already begun speculating about such an outcome on the premise that Trump would be disqualified by the courts and Biden would eventually respect the public mood. But that is more of a pipedream than a possibility as of now.
Back to the voter. His default reaction is to distance himself from most politicians and political parties, but not necessarily from politics. That is why a growing number of people, predominantly young, are refusing affiliation with either of the two major parties to maintain their independence.
They prefer to vote not along party lines but on merit. They are also choosing to make themselves heard through the ballot box rather than moping on the margins.
The findings of the monthly Gallup polls are instructive. In the preceding few months, 43 to 49 per cent of American adults have described themselves as independent, compared to 39 per cent in 2020.
Meanwhile, the ranks of voters identifying themselves with one party or the other have dwindled. Of late, between 25 and 27 per cent of the voters style themselves as Democrats, compared to 30 per cent in 2020.
The Republicans fare only slightly better. It is important to flag that these numbers are approximations and are subject to regular fluctuation.
All the same, this phenomenon has far-reaching implications and played out in the New Hampshire primaries (held on January 23), stealing Trump’s thunder even though he managed an 11 per cent lead over Nikki Haley.
In the Iowa primaries held just a week earlier, he had commanded a 32 per cent lead over Nikki Haley, securing 51 per cent of the vote. In New Hampshire, he polled 3 points higher at 54.3 per cent, but Haley’s vote swelled by 24 per cent points to 43.3 per cent. Reason? Size of independent voters and dissimilar electoral rules.
According to ABC News, less than a quarter of the electorate considers itself independent in Iowa, compared to at least 43 per cent in New Hampshire. Again, 52 per cent of Iowans are very conservative compared to 25 per cent in New Hampshire.
The die-hard Republicans overwhelmingly voted for Trump, while some 65 per cent of independents favoured Haley. A larger section of the New Hampshire population is better educated and not so enamoured of Trump. Significantly big states like California, Florida, New York and North Carolina, are home to sizeable numbers of independent voters.
It is noteworthy that the US does not have uniform electoral rules across the nation, either for the primaries or the main polls. Each state has its own rules and practices, which could vary widely from one another. In Iowa, only registered Republicans can vote in the primaries, while in New Hampshire, anyone eligible can vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries.
Another interesting trend in recent years is a larger turnout. It was under 55 per cent on average between 1972 and 2000, which jumped to 60.1 per cent in 2004 and soared to 66.6 per cent in 2020, the highest since 1900, when 73.7 per cent of the electorate came out to vote.
Proactive participation by Asian Americans and Latino voters was a contributing factor. A good turnout usually favours the Democrats, and it did swing the elections in favour of Biden last time around.
It makes for a healthy democracy when citizens take their responsibility seriously by exercising their franchise. It is heartening that in India, voter turnout has steadily grown from 47.74 per cent in 1957 to 67.4 per cent in 2019.
Meanwhile, Trump’s juggernaut is rolling on, with Nikki Haley as the only remaining obstacle. The feisty former governor of South Carolina and US ambassador to the UN during the Trump presidency is soldiering on, much to Trump’s annoyance. He is targeting her vociferously and crudely. He has falsely alleged that she was born abroad, which would disqualify her from the contest. This has forced Nikki Haley, who had so far pulled her punches, to go on the offensive, accusing him of sowing chaos and confusion.
A bulk of the other Republican contenders have already bowed out of the race, mostly endorsing Trump’s candidature. The last two to pull out in the preceding fortnight are Vivek Ramaswamy (a voluble critic of Haley) and Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida. Swimming with the tide, some 30 Republican senators and 120 Republican House representatives have also rallied behind Trump. Some harbour the slender hope of being picked up as his running mate, bagging a cabinet position, or getting his support when running for office in the future. They are intimidated by his hold on the party and his bullying tactics.
Nikki Haley has made it known that she will now focus on the primaries in her home state, slated for February 23. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.” However, she is trailing behind Trump in opinion polls, and a poor showing there may force her to quit. That said, full marks to her for putting up a spirited fight.
Though scheduled to last until the first week of June, the primaries season could be effectively over after the South Carolina round, clearing the way for a Biden-Trump rematch. The high-octane contest leading up to November 5, the actual polling day, would see a no-holds-barred slugfest between the duo while they are simultaneously trying to woo the independent voter who is emerging as the kingmaker.
The author is a foreign affairs specialist and an ex-envoy to Canada and South Korea. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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