I remember traversing the length and breadth of the country before the 2019 general elections. The Congress had formed governments in three Hindi heartland states and was perceived as being on an upswing. I recall many election analysts and journalists in the run-up to 2019, calling it “a revival of Congress”, however, when my team and I were gathering and analysing data in the same states as others, our findings indicated that more than 50 per cent of the people were unanimously clear that Narendra Modi should come back as Prime Minister in 2019.
Even in the state of Uttar Pradesh, which saw SP and BSP coming together to form an alliance, my data showed that the core voters of either party preferred Narendra Modi over their party in 2019. The people voted and PM Narendra Modi formed an absolute majority government with a higher vote share and seat share than in 2014, to the surprise of many, but not to me and my team. If 2014 was an ‘anti-incumbency’ verdict, a verdict for ‘hope’, then 2019 was a verdict for ‘delivery’.
Moving on to January 2024. Sitting in Ayodhya, interacting with people and analysing data that my team of analysts are collecting from across the country, I won’t be wrong to conclude that the people of India have already made up their minds. They want to see Narendra Modi back as Prime Minister in 2024.
In my interactions, a whopping 75 per cent of people thanked PM Narendra Modi for supporting and expediting the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. This included people from southern and non-Hindi heartland states as well. A group from Telangana, who voted for the Congress in the 2023 assembly elections, was completely clear that they “want Modi”. Similar sentiments resonated in Gopalganj, an ‘RJD bastion’ where youth in their 20s echoed – “Jo Ram ko laaye hain, ham unko laayenge.” These youth had voted for RJD in the assembly elections. Even in southern parts of Tamil Nadu, data suggests that unlike in 2019, there was no antipathy towards Narendra Modi and the BJP.
PM Modi’s ability to attract people hinges on three factors – a) the atmosphere of civilisational renaissance, b) welfarism for people at the bottom of the pyramid and c) people’s belief that India will attain an all-time high global position. These are three strong pillars and are sturdier than what they were in 2019. Elections are not won by pure arithmetic, they are won by chemistry.
The Congress has been getting roughly 10–11 crore votes since the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, whereas the BJP has increased its tally from 7,80,00,000 votes to roughly 22 crore votes. This increase of 15 crore is the ‘leadership impact’. This general election, data suggests a further swing in favour of Narendra Modi with the BJP gaining more strength in UP, Telangana, Odisha, Bengal, and Tamil Nadu than in 2019. There is more than a 90 per cent probability of the BJP increasing its vote share than it had in 2019. With PM Narendra Modi, the ‘India Shining’ campaign of Vajpayee cannot be repeated. The BJP is neither weak in UP like it was in the run-up to 2004, nor is there any lack of motivation in workers of the BJP and RSS. The cadre seems more motivated than in 2019.
When sampled, around 68 per cent are resolute to go door-to-door to seek votes for Narendra Modi in the run-up to general elections. In the absence of any significant pull factor towards the Opposition, the floating voters tend to drift toward the winner. In this case, the BJP’s chance to attract the floating voters is 78 per cent higher than that of the INDI alliance. When I travelled on the ground in 2019, I could still sense some pockets that were green-field states for the BJP—Telangana, Odisha, and Bengal. In 2024, the BJP is not starting from zero base vote in any of these states; Narendra Modi’s reach has only expanded, and he enjoys one-sided support in 50 per cent of the electorate—the women. The recently concluded Assembly elections are a testament to how women’s vote surpassed all arithmetic electoral conclusions.
Strong and popular leaders either win convincingly or lose convincingly. There are no ‘half-hearted’ or ‘hung’ verdicts when they are at the helm of affairs. The state or national elections, post-2014, have indicated an era of ‘decisive’ verdicts. At present, PM Narendra Modi’s social base has increased over 2019, his welfare schemes have reached more people than in 2019, his cadre is more motivated than in 2019, more women support him than in 2019, his ability to attract new voters is more than in 2019, and the Opposition parties are weaker than in 2019.
I won’t be surprised if Narendra Modi wins with a higher vote share and seat share than in 2019. As things stand, at present, ‘only Narendra Modi can defeat Narendra Modi’ and 2024 is a closed chapter for the Indian Opposition.
The author is Founder, Jan Ki Baat, Psephologist & Broadcast Journalist. He has predicted 39 Indian Elections accurately including 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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