Elections are all about numbers. And election managers in each constituency strive to get the numbers right. The Congress had claimed it got the numbers right by fielding 47 fresh faces in its 86-strong candidate list for the Kerala assembly polls while retaining 21of its 22 MLAs. The CPI(M) claimed it got the numbers by dropping 33 MLAs, including five senior cabinet ministers. The BJP managers too are furiously crunching numbers as they make a mighty heave in those constituencies where they see even a sliver of hope by fielding candidates like E Sreedharan to supplement the homegrown leaders.
But on April 6, all these would be mere reference points to the real numbers – the votes that get cast. Already 4 lakh super senior citizens, aged 80 and above, have had the chance to cast their votes on paper. It is understood that over 2 lakh already have, and now the UDF fears that there will be mass manipulation of these votes unless closely monitored while they get tabulated. Similarly, there are the significant votes of the service sector and also the state government employees whose representative bodies have had a distinct Left orientation in the past.
The 140-member legislative assembly had 91 LDF MLAs and 47 UDF, one NDA and one remaining independent. Therefore, the name of the game for the LDF is defending its numbers, while for the UDF it is gaining numbers at the cost of the Left, whereas the NDA would not mind where they come from as long as it can add to its one seat this time. Considering the top billing and clear edge given to the LDF by each and every pre-poll survey, the April 6 election has to be as much lost by the LDF, as won by the UDF. And how significant a role the NDA candidates get to play in changing the outcome in close to a dozen seats remains to be seen.
Consider this: upwards of 40, going up to 50 seats are billed to be tightly contested and could swing either way or, in a couple of cases, even the third way. And that is where the UDF is pinning its hopes big time as most of these seats have sitting LDF MLAs. The Congress expects its senior ally, Muslim League, to win 20-22 seats while 8-10 seats are expected from the remaining allies. In other words, the Congress has to come good in half of the 86 seats the party is contesting.
Congress leaders do not expect more than four or five out of 21 sitting MLAs to lose. The remaining two dozen or more seats, they are convinced, will come from the first-time candidates, many of whom come from the lowest strata of society and are the backbone of the generational change mantra emanating from Rahul Gandhi’s office.
Meanwhile, the LDF has pegged back its earlier expectation levels reflected in numerous surveys by leading media houses in the state. The result: a visible climbdown from 85-95 seats just about a week ago, to a sober 78, of which 10 seats could go either way. Independent analysts put the sure seats of both the LDF and UDF at around 50, with the former holding an edge in another 15-20, the latter in 10-15 seats.
The LDF poll management has come across as orchestrated to a fault by the state leadership, with the apparatchiks marching to an unvarying beat, powered by uniform funding. The UDF on the other hand appeared totally decentralised, the organisational structure rendered weak in the absence of a true organisational manager which, in the normal course, should have been the state Congress president. The NDA campaign on the other hand has been propped almost entirely by dozens of visiting BJP leaders from Delhi and other states as they see Kerala as an extension of their pan-India mission.
The NDA is expected to win anywhere between 0 and 3 seats, with the BJP poised to emerge second in at least half a dozen constituencies, maybe even 10. Some of the independent poll watchers now see the May 2 result to be more in the 75-65 band minus a couple of seats from either side going to the NDA. Curiously, no seasoned political pundit is brave enough to call the winner.
As per the latest data, there are 2,74,46,039 registered voters in Kerala which is a 7 lakh plus climb from 2,67,31,509 voters, which was the statistics put out by the Election Commission as recently as January 20 this year. Surely, while the spurt in numbers in the past two months will be heralded as a renewed interest by the people of the state to participate in the election, there will also be fingers pointed at duplication of voters. What will also come up for debate is the addition of migrant labour also called guest workers in the state electoral rolls, many of them either being registered voters in their home states while the rest allegedly being illegal migrants from Bangladesh.
Historically, the outcome of Kerala state elections has been determined by about 10 per cent of the electorate which constitutes the neutral voter base. While about 6 per cent are known to make up their mind in the last week, the rest famously decide only on the penultimate day. And the state assembly results have swung alternatively from the LDF to the UDF every other election, arguably as the neutral voters keep switching their allegiance one way and then the other.
Sure, the third front is going to leave a larger footprint this time. Perhaps not winning many seats but queering the pitch for the fronts in what otherwise would have been straight contests. Therefore, the final outcome would still pitch the LDF against the UDF. Because the marginal voters are going to swing mostly in favour of the one front which they sense will emerge as the winner. And that would still be either the UDF or the LDF.
Ultimately, the variables and factoids being what they are, the clinching factor may well be the sporting disposition of the neutral Keralites. Would they back the pre-game favourite by playing it safe? Or would they feel emboldened enough to trigger an upset by rooting for the underdog? They will be sleeping over this decision tonight.
This is the fifth in a seven-part series on the Kerala elections.
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