As Covid-19 cases in India on Friday recorded its highest-ever daily tally since September last year with over 6000 fresh infections amid the emergence of recombinant variant XBB.1.16, experts have said while cases may peak in the next 20 days, a fourth wave is unlikely.
Based on past trends, the peak is expected to occur within 15 to 20 days, followed by a decline Covid expert Dr Raghuwinder Parashar told India Today. “Understanding differences in virus patterns from past waves is essential because they can help us understand more and create measures to prevent virus infections. According to previous trends, the peak should be within 15 to 20 days, and then a downfall is expected,” he said.
Dr Jugal Kishore, Professor and Head of the Department of Community Medicine Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital also appeared to agree with Parashar’s statement and told the publication while the Covid cases are on the rise, the pace is slow in comparison to the previous waves and it does not seem to be highly contagious. Otherwise, the number of cases in the last two weeks would have been considerably higher, he said.
Eminent biologist Shekhar Mande told News18 on Monday that the surge in Covid cases was due to “a slightly new variant”. “Our immunity might be waning, or it might be a vaccine breakthrough mutant. But nonetheless, we will not see as many hospitalisations or deaths as in previous waves.” He added that this surge is not expected to be similar to the first wave or the devastating second wave caused by the Delta variant.
XBB.1.16 Variant Concerns
Meanwhile, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya held a high-level meeting on Friday to discuss the Covid-19 situation in view of the surge in cases being attributed to a new coronavirus subvariant, XBB.1.16, which has been circulating through India for the last few months.
States and Union Territories were informed that currently, the World Health Organization (WHO) is closely tracking one variant of interest (VOI), XBB.1.5 and six other variants are under monitoring (BQ.1, BA.2.75, CH.1.1, XBB, XBF and XBB.1.16).
The WHO in a recent statement said, “At the present time, there are only about 800 sequences of XBB.1.16 from 22 countries. Most of the sequences are from India and in India XBB.1.16 has replaced the other variants that are in circulation. So, this is one to watch. It has been in circulation for a few months.”
According to the WHO, XBB.1.16 is very similar in profile to the earlier XBB.1.5 variant. It has one additional mutation in the spike protein which in lab studies shows increased infectivity, as well as potential increased pathogenicity. The virus uses the spike protein to infect and enter human cells.
Gautam I. Menon, dean (research) and professor, Departments of Physics and Biology at Haryana’s Ashoka University told PTI that the numbers will continue to rise in the coming weeks, particularly in Kerala and Maharashtra where surveillance systems are stronger but is unlikely to cause the deadly Delta-led wave in the country. “From current indications, the fraction of severe cases also appears to be far smaller than for Delta,” he said
Satyajit Rath, professor emeritus at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune, said the surge in Covid-19 cases would be the outcome of “emerging virus variants, loss of vaccine- or infection-acquired protective immunity in people, and environmental factors.”
Menon, citing research said a substantial part of the immunity built up both from prior infections and vaccinations will prevent severe Covid-19 disease, although it will not prevent infection with new variants.
Common Cold-like Spread Suggests Endemicity
The scientist provided reassurance by explaining that while the virus may mutate, the likelihood of future waves having the same devastating impact as the Delta variant is low due to the virus becoming endemic. “COVID-19 is effectively endemic in the country, and virtually all of us will have sustained an infection by now, whether we knew it or not. The virus is behaving like coronaviruses that cause common-cold-like symptoms and can keep reinfecting us,” he said.
Speaking on hospitalisations in the country amid the fresh surge, Viswesvaran Balasubramanian, consultant, of interventional pulmonology and sleep medicine, at Hyderabad’s Yashoda Hospitals said that numbers are minimal. “Currently, COVID-19 infections are mild, with predominantly upper respiratory tract symptoms like sore throat, running nose, fever, and body aches. In patients requiring admission, cough, breathlessness, and fall in oxygen saturation are seen in most,” he explained.
Scientists have maintained that severe Covid infection is seen among the elderly and those with immunocompromised conditions and fewer people are dying since many have at least some immunity with either vaccination or prior infection.
Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has advised states to stay alert and ramp up Covid-19 management. States were asked to conduct mock drills of all hospital infrastructure on April 10 and 11 and review the health preparedness with district administrations and health officials on April 8 and 9.
The states and Union territories were briefed that the country has been witnessing a steady increase in Covid-19 cases with average daily cases rising to 4,188 in the week ending April 7 from 571 in the week ending March 17; and weekly positivity up to 3.02 per cent in the week ending April 7. However, 88,503 daily average cases have been reported globally in the same time, with the top five countries contributing 62.6 per cent of global cases in the last one week, the statement said.
(With inputs from PTI)
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