As nuclear-armed Pakistan goes to polls, it has its neighbours and the West shuddering over what might happen next in a country at risk of being destabilised by Taliban and al Qaeda.
Here are some of the possible election scenarios, based on Pakistani political analysts and foreign diplomats assessments:
THE BACKDROP:
> Although it is not a presidential vote, US ally President Pervez Musharraf's position could be in danger if the election produces a hostile parliament that could seek his impeachment.
> Musharraf, who came to power as Army Chief in a 1999 coup, secured a second term as president by imposing emergency rule in November for a few weeks in order to purge the Supreme Court of judges who stood in his way.
> Opinion polls show most Pakistanis do not believe Musharraf should lead them any longer and, having quit the army to become a civilian president, he is regarded as weaker than ever before.
> The country is still reeling from the shock of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto's assassination on December 27, and campaigning has been low key due to security fears after a wave of suicide attacks and violence across the northwest.
> The West is concerned that a Pakistan caught in political flux could lose focus in the war on terrorism, though the United States appears confident in new Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani.
NEXT: MUSHARRAF'S HOLD ON POWER:
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MUSHARRAF'S HOLD ON POWER:
> If Musharraf is lucky there will be no clear winner, and no one will be strong enough to unseat him.
> The one combination that Musharraf dreads would be an alliance between Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and the party led by the Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister he ousted in 1999.
> The other danger for Musharraf during this time is violence. Should PPP and Sharif's party, variously known as PML-N or Nawaz League, say they were cheated by vote-rigging they could call for street protests. It would be a recipe for turmoil. If the Army had to restore order, generals might decide that Musharraf was too unpopular and advise him to step aside.
> Musharraf's political support comes from the Pakistan Muslim League, the party he split when he ousted Sharif. The wing that hooked up with Musharraf is known as PML-Q or Q League.
Almost everyone, barring Musharraf, agrees that unless polls are rigged the Q League will lose many of the 130 seats it controlled in the last National Assembly. Pakistan hasn't had an election regarded as free and fair since 1970.
PPP IN POLE POSITION:
> Riding a sympathy vote, PPP is expected to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, and win Sindh province.
For PPP to win a majority is probably expecting too much. It had 63 of 342 seats in the last assembly. Some analysts reckon it will win closer to 130 this time.
> Neither Bhutto's husband Asif Ali Zardari, nor her 19-year-old son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who inherited joint chairmanship of the PPP with his father, are prime ministerial candidates.
That role is expected to be filled by the party's deputy chairman, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, an unimposing personality that rivals could regard as the most acceptable choice in a coalition.
But it is Zardari who is calling the shots, and he has kept post-election options open, just as his late wife had done.
> Bhutto kept open the possibility of working with Musharraf, as he could protect her from enemies in the military and Punjabi establishment who brought down her two governments in the 1990s.
Analysts say PPP could well end up leading a coalition containing Q League along with regional and Islamist parties.
NEXT: SHARIF'S POSITION:
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SHARIF'S POSITION:
> If it has the numbers, the PPP could shun the Q League and form a coalition that still contained pro-Musharraf elements, such as the Karachi-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).
> Hooking up with the Nawaz League is the biggest gamble. Sharif was the PPP's enemy through the 1990s, and it was under his rule that Bhutto was hounded out of Pakistan and Zardari was jailed for years on corruption charges that were never proven.
It would mean risking everything on a confrontation with Musharraf, and begs the question: If Musharraf was out of the way, would Zardari or Sharif, a product of the Punjabi establishment, emerge the stronger? Punjabis usually win.
SHARIF'S POSITION:
> Sharif is barred from contesting the election and his party is expected to be the main victim of any rigging, having rebuffed feelers Musharraf is said to have put out for a reconciliation.
> Restoration of judges who would have barred Musharraf's second term is a central plank of the Nawaz League's campaign.
> Having only returned from exile in December, Sharif will use the elections to re-establish his base, and position himself for next time. If Musharraf was removed, it could lead to a reunification of the PML sundered by the 1999 coup.
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