Quad Countries are Already Past Their Threshold for Cementing an Anti-China Coalition

The Quad that was just a concept in making for almost a decade— from 2007 when its first ‘informal’ official meeting was held to 2017, when it was revived, with its first formal meeting— now may see a concrete roadmap ahead for an official alliance status.

Top leaders of the four Quad member countries— India, China, Japan and Australia — are for the first time meeting today, and if we see the Quad timeline here, we can realise how important it is going to be. The grouping saw a hiatus for almost a decade due to different political reservations in each Quad country.

But, now as China wants to replace the US as the only superpower in the world, as the CIA has warned, and India, Japan and Australia have already seen increased Chinese meddling in their territorial, political and economic affairs, the threshold that stopped them from forming an anti-China coalition has already passed.

India

India has fought a war imposed by China. It is involved in a territorial dispute with China already in possession of 20% of the J&K territory and wants further expansion in Indian union territory of Ladakh and claims that the whole state of Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory.

And both countries are, at the moment, engaged in a military stand-off, with China trying to push in further in the Indian union territory of Ladakh. Both India and China in the past agreed on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) but Beijing now doesn’t accept the ‘agreed’ borderline.

China is also encircling India by trying to create strategic bases in the countries in India’s neighbourhood, something that is known as China’s String of Pearls approach: be it the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Gwadar Port in Pakistan or Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka or China-Myanmar Economic Corridor in Myanmar or mega infrastructure projects in other countries in India’s neighbourhood. Both Gwadar and Hambantota ports are under Chinese operational control now.

China is working to snare these countries in a debt trap, making their political development dependent on Beijing and forcing them to take operational control of these assets which may act as military bases in future. With Pakistan, China, in fact, has opened a dual front against India and we cannot deny a future two-front hostility.

A strategic military alliance between the Quad nations will put a brake on these Chinese activities.

China has been seen as a Covid-19 conspirator by many major countries including the US and Australia while India, being the largest vaccine-making country, has been seen as a global rescuer, especially for the poor and third-world countries.

Now China is trying to mitigate that perception by exporting large quantities of Covid-19 vaccines to other countries, even if there is no global benchmark study on the efficacy of its vaccines, unlike India.

Also, this move by Beijing sits well with its efforts to make a China-centric world. Aid and export vaccines to as many countries as possible to take them in the Chinese sphere of influence in near future.

India is also looking at a possible future water war with China as the northern neighbour has decided to build many mega-dams on the Brahmaputra river that originates in China. The storage capacity of these dams will affect the river’s water flow in India that is the lifeline not just in north-eastern India but also in Bangladesh. China, in future, also plans to divert the river’s water to other parts of the country.

The US

China is directly challenging the US world domination and the Quad-led Indo-Pacific strategy is expected to be a cornerstone of US policymaking ahead. China, which is involved in an escalating trade war with the US, has seen increasing hostile American attitude on Chinese human rights violations in Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Against Chinese wishes, the US has also elevated its relations with Taiwan.

While Xi Jinping has alleged that the US may start a new cold war with its protectionist policies, thus directly attacking Joe Biden’s plans to form different anti-China alliances, the US sees China as deliberately obstructing the freedom of the world, be it navigation in the South China Sea or China’s territorial expansion or maritime disputes or claiming Taiwan to be a part of China.

The Covid diplomacy by China will also hit the US global dominance directly with more and more countries ultimately falling into the Chinese trap. So, the aim should be to make a counter-structure first by helping India in vaccine production and Covid destruction globally and the next stage could be to create alternate global manufacturing bases, be it in India or other democratic counters with the potential to make an economic system beyond Chinese influences.

The Quad can help in realising this with strategic trade and military alliances in the Indo-Pacific.

Japan

Japan, like India, is engaged in a territorial dispute with China. The country that once ruled China is facing a more offensive Chinese army these days. Last year, in fact, Japan saw the most incursions, spread over 330 days, by Chinese ships in disputed Japanese waters near Senkaku Islands.

Like the US, Japan, too, wants alternate manufacturing hubs and in fact, announced a $2.2 billion package for Japanese companies last year to shift production bases from China.

Australia

Australia last year called for an international enquiry on coronavirus origin.

Once a thriving partnership, Australia’s ties with China, like it happened with India, have touched their lowest ebb these days. Australian leadership now sees China as a hostile country that wants to influence and drive Australia’s political affairs as China is Australia’s largest trading partner and buyer of its vast mineral resources with Australia’s 39% export to the country.

A favourable government in Australia will not only help China with its vast resources, much needed for China’s industry, but will also help China with territorial and maritime claim disputes, something that Australia did in the past.

But with Beijing’s real intent now becoming clear, Australia is wary of China’s growing militarisation in the South China Sea and rejects Beijing’s territorial and maritime claims.

Australia has also warned about China’s possible technological colonisation by its tech companies that allegedly work with its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) or the Chinese army to spy and collect data in other countries that may be misused in future. Or a simple Chinese directive can force these Chinese companies to cripple other countries’ networks. Australia, in fact, was the first country that banned Chinese information technology firm Huawei from 5G networking.

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