THIRUVANANTHAPURAM Where elephants will fear to tread, or will not fear to tread, is not something that can be foretold. But not any more. Kerala University scientists of the Zoology and Geology departments as well as those of the Centre for Geo-information Science and Technology, have developed a prediction model, that can predict possible human-elephant conflict(HEC) zones and thus indirectly help the authorities in prevention of such conflicts.The team of Gopal Prasad, R Shiny, R Reghunath and V Prasannakumar, took into account several factors such as the slope of the area, canopy density, distance to the forest, distance to the rivers, distance to tribal settlements and so on, in their analysis of possible conflict zones. ‘’While the link between availability of water and human-elephant conflicts are a known factor, we took into account several other environmental factors but used only eight factors that contribute the most to develop the model,’’ said Gopal Prasad, who had specifically looked at the conflict zones in the Agali as well as Munnar areas of the Western Ghats. The team found that more the canopy density, the less was the chance of attack by elephants. ‘’When the forest is dense and dark, even when the elephants notice a human presence they will just go their way. But stand in a cleared area, or in the elephant corridor or among grass as it had happened in the case of the two men who got killed at Munnar, you are asking for trouble,’’ said Gopal Prasad.V Prasannakumar, who heads the Centre for Geo-Information Science and Technology, said that spatial data, especially regarding the terrain and land-use such as agriculture can be effective in prediction modelling. ‘’Avoiding cultivation of banana, sugarcane and pineapple in certain terrains and near hamlets can keep the elephants away. In certain terrains where the slope is more, elephants fear to come down and is ideally suited for cultivation of such crops,’’ he said.Tribal settlements near the forest are a sure target with elephants coming in for food crops, cooked salted food and even liquor. ‘’During the breeding season, the elephants need more protein and minerals. While female elephants maraud only those hamlets near the forest, male elephants travel a lot,’’ said Gopal Prasad. Making use of Geographic Information System (GIS) and database from various departments such as the Forest Department, LSG and the Agriculture Department, the scientists are confident that they can create more prediction tools for other human-elephant conflict zones. The current prediction model for the Agali forest area will be published in the international journal of ‘Wildlife Biology in Practice’ in December.
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